1. Milwaukee Brewers
2010 Record: 77-85
Projected 2011 Record: 89-73
The Lineup
The Brewers’ lineup is pretty good, with a lot of power in the form of 1B Prince Fielder in a contract year, LF Ryan Braun, RF Corey Hart, and 3B rising star Casey McGehee. Leadoff man 2B Rickie Weeks is coming off a career season (.269, 29 HR, 83 RBI) while new SS Yuniesky Betancourt, acquired from the Royals, is also a good hitter.
The Pitching
The Brewers’ pitching was one of the worst in baseball last season and prevented the team from making a run toward the postseason. Enter Zack Grienke. The Brewers acquire the 2009 AL Cy Young Winner to strengthen a long-time weakness of the team (barring any more basketball injuries). Also added was ex-Blue Jay Shaum Marcum, a very underrated pitcher who should thrive in the NL. Young stud Yovani Gallardo, who will start opening day for the second straight year, veteran southpaw Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson round out the rotation. The bullpen is anchored by hard-throwing closer John Axford, who took over for Trevor Hoffman last season.
The Key
The hitting and pitching should be there, but in order for the Brewers to win the division, the defense must be solid to prevent cheap runs from scoring in close games down the stretch. Fielder, Betancourt, and Weeks may be great hitters, but are mediocre defenders at best.
2. Cincinnati Reds
2010 Record: 91-71
Projected 2011 Record: 87-75
The Lineup
The Reds offense broke out last year, led of course by NL MVP 1B Joey Votto (.324, 37 HR, 113 RBI). In addition, the outfield is outstanding, with CF Drew Stubbs as a combination of power and speed at the top, RF Jay Bruce providing power in the middle, and LF Jonny Gomes a consistent veteran hitter at Great American Ballpark. Veterans Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez are all in decline at this point in their careers, but are still very solid contributors to an explosive offensive attack.
The Pitching
The Reds rotation is where there are a couple question marks. Edison Volquez, who will start opening day, is a lively arm, but has yet to show continual success in the majors without getting hurt. Veteran Bronson Arroyo is a solid #2 veteran, but second year pitchers Travis Wood, Mike Leake, and Travis LeCeure must all avoid sophomore slumps and duplicate their success of 2010. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are also in the mix, but both will begin the season on the DL. In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero is a good closer, while having a guy that can throw 103 MPH (Aroldis Chapman) isn’t bad either.
The Key
The starting pitching. The lineup should be awesome again, but for the Reds to repeat as division champions in 2010, the question marks in the rotation must be answered again.
The Lineup
The Cubs’ offense was in the middle of the pack last year, rankings 18th in runs scored and 16th in team batting average. Free-agent signee 1B Carlos Pena and a complete, healthy season from 3B Aramis Ramirez will definitely help the power numbers on the north side of Chicago. LF Alfonso Soriano can also hit for tremendous power, but as struggled living up to the gigantic contract he signed a couple years back. Behind the dish, catcher Geovany Soto had a good bounce back season in 2010 and his contributions are key in making Chicago’s offense more potent. The middle of the infield is largely unproven, with 21-year old phenom SS Starlin Castro getting a taste of the big leagues at the end of last year, and journeyman Jeff Baker.
The Pitching
The front-end of the Cubs rotation is solid, with veteran Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano (anger management issues behind him, we think), and righty Matt Garza, who was acquired from the Rays. The backend, once again, is shaky, though, with Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner unproven as major league pitchers. In the bullpen, Kerry Wood returns to Chicago as a setup man behind electric closer Carlos Marmol.
The Key
For the Cubs to contend this year, the offensive consistency of Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano must be there, both power-wise and more batting-average-wise.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
2010 Record: 86-76
Projected 2011 Record: 81-81
The Lineup
The Redbirds return the same mediocre lineup from a year ago, which ranked 9th in overall batting average, but just 16th in slugging. With or without a contract extension, Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and he, along with LF Matt Holliday and CF Colby Rasmus provide all the power in this lineup. Longtime Astro Lance Berkman was added to play right field, a position he hasn’t played consistently since 2004, and a big question mark is how much he will contribute, as he has been in decline for several years. At SS, St. Louis added former Cub Ryan Theriot, who should bring some speed and average to a position that has long been a weak-spot.
The Pitching
Losing Adam Wainwright, who was runner-up for the NL Cy Young last season, for the season with an elbow injury definitely hurts the Cardinals’ World Series aspirations. However, they still have ace Chris Carpenter and pitching coach god Dave Duncan, so all is not lost. Behind Carpenter, veteran Jake Westbrook should be a solid #2 pitcher and second-year lefty Jaime Garcia is coming off a great rookie season. Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan round out still a very solid rotation. In the bullpen, closer Ryan Franklin is not dominant, but seems to always do the job. Flame flower Jason Motte is also an option should Franklin struggle.
Losing Adam Wainwright, who was runner-up for the NL Cy Young last season, for the season with an elbow injury definitely hurts the Cardinals’ World Series aspirations. However, they still have ace Chris Carpenter and pitching coach god Dave Duncan, so all is not lost. Behind Carpenter, veteran Jake Westbrook should be a solid #2 pitcher and second-year lefty Jaime Garcia is coming off a great rookie season. Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan round out still a very solid rotation. In the bullpen, closer Ryan Franklin is not dominant, but seems to always do the job. Flame flower Jason Motte is also an option should Franklin struggle.
The Key
In order for the Cardinals to return to the playoffs, they must get offensive production toward the bottom lineup from the declining Berkman, 3B David Freese, and Molina to take some of the load off Pujols and Holliday.
5. Houston Astros
2010 Record: 76-86
Projected 2011 Record: 71-81
The Lineup
The last time the Astros had a good offense was 2004, and last year, it hit rock bottom with the team 29th in on-base percentage, 29th in batting average, and 28th in runs scored. All-Star CF Michael Bourn is a speed demon while RF Hunter Pence and 3B Chris Johnson should also be solid contributors in the lineup. However, LF Carlos Lee continued his decline in 2010, and the middle infield problems were not solved by adding mediocre veterans Bill Hall and Clint Barmes. 1B Brett Wallace is an emerging prospect for the Astros, and has had a strong spring, but has yet to show well at the majors yet and will have to continue his progression to help out an awful offense.
The Pitching
The Astros’ rotation was actually not horrible last year, but far from elite. Brett Myers earned himself the #1 spot in the rotation with a solid first season in Houston (14-8, 3.24 ERA). He will be looking to duplicate that success this year. Behind Myers is southpaw Wandy Rodriguez, who had an up-and-down 2010, but should be solid. Young star J.A. Happ, who was acquired from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade, the inconsistent Bud Norris, and journeyman Nelson Figueroa round out the back end of the rotation. The bullpen, with veteran Brandon Lyon as the closer is a mix of unproven, young pitchers.
The Key
Scoring runs by getting production up and down the lineup. Easier said than done with this roster, but the Astros are going to need production from Wallace, Johnson, and Hall to even compete for a wildcard spot in 2011.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
2010 Record: 57-105
Projected 2011 Record: 64-98
The Lineup
The Pirates never-ending cycle of rebuilding will continue in 2011, which means another year of growing pains. CF Andrew McCutchen is the lone star in Pittsburgh’s lineup and has five-star potential. Other young rising stars on the Pirates include second-year players who are coming off strong rookies seasons: leadoff LF Jose Tabata and 3B Pedro Alvarez, who brings a lot of power to the middle of the lineup behind McCutchen. The middle of the infield is respectable, with SS Ronny Cedeno and especially, 2B Neil Walker coming off a breakout season (.296, 12 HR, 66 RBI). Finally, veteran 1B Lyle Overbay, RF Garrett Jones, and C Chris Snyder all bring power, but not much average.
The Pitching
The annual laughing stock that is the Pirates rotation should continue in 2011, unless a lot of their young pitchers take gigantic steps forward. Veteran Kevin Correia, who will start opening day, is an average major league pitcher at best who will eat up innings. After Correia are Ross Ohlendorf, Paul Maholm1and Charlie Morton, all ex-prospects who have been disappointments at major league level, with little expected upside. 26-year old James McDonald, who rounds out the rotation, has the most potential for the group and may develop into the Pirates’ “ace” by the end of the year. In the bullpen, veteran Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek will look to lock down opposing teams in the final innings.
The Key
For the Pirates to avoid their 19th straight losing season, the hundreds of question marks in the Pirates’ pitching staff must be answered.
No comments:
Post a Comment