NFL Picks: Week Three

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Week 2 record: 9-7
Season record: 22-10

NFL Picks: Week Two

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Week 1 record: 13-3

NFL Picks: Week One

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My 2009 AFC South Preview

1. Indianapolis Colts
2008 Record: 12-4
Projected 2009 Record: 10-6
The Offense
The Colts’ offense should be dominant as usual this season, even without WR Marvin Harrison. Of course, it helps having QB Peyton Manning taking the snaps. Filling in for the departure of Harrison is WR Anthony Gonzalez, who should be a viable replacement. The offensive line got better as the season progressed last year and it returns intact and should be solid. The Colts running game suffered last year with Joseph Addai, but rookie first round pick Donald Brown should help.
The Defense
The 11th ranked defense from last year returns pretty much intact. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are the best combo in the league, while MLB Gary Brackett, and OLBs Clint Session and Tyjuan Hagler return. The secondary also returns with safeties Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt, and corners Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson, all solid players a year older.
The Key
The running game. The Colts won 12 games despite being 31st in rushing last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown must give the offense some balance for the Colts to go further in the playoffs.

2. Houston Texans
2008 Record: 8-8
Projected 2009 Record: 9-7
The Offense
The Texans’ offense finally broke through last season, putting up monster numbers and ranking 3rd in the league in yards. QB Matt Schaub returns as the second best QB in the division, but he needs to stay healthy for the Texans to contend. RB Steve Slaton was a pleasant surprise as a rookie last year, and he, along with backup Chris Brown, who also needs to stay healthy, need to move the chains on the ground for the passing game to reach its full potential. The receiving core is one of the best in the league. WR Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in football, while pro-bowl TE Owen Daniels and WR Kevin Walter are great complements. The offensive line returns five starters, although C Chris Myers and RG Mike Brisiel need to show more consistency.
The Defense
Is this the year the Texans defense steps up? Free agent signee DE Antonio Smith who replaces the incompetent Anthony Weaver and rookie first round pick OLB Brian Cushing should certainly help improve a defense that was 22nd last year. DE Mario Williams and MLB DeMeco Ryans are pro-bowl caliber, as the front seven will be the strength of this unit. The secondary has many questions, though as CB Fred Bennett is inexperienced and inconsistent, CB Jacque Reeves is coming back from a broken leg, and CB Dunta Robinson needs a couple weeks to get into game shape after his long training camp holdout.
The Key
The defense. The front seven must get pressure on opposing quarterbacks so the mediocre secondary is not picked apart for this team to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

3. Tennessee Titans
2008 Record: 13-3
Projected 2009 Record: 8-8
The Offense
After Vince Young went down both physically and mentally last year, QB Kerry Collins stepped in and delivered a pro-bowl season, leading the Titans to a 13-3 regular season record. He needs be solid again this year and stay on the field for the Titans to contend. The running game was one of the tops in the league, with “smash (LenDale White) and dash (Chris Johnson)” and will be great again this year. The mediocre receiving core from last year is gone, with free agent WR Nate Washington and rookie first round pick Kenny Britt joining Justin Gage in what should be a much improved passing game. Up front, five starters return, with veteran C Kevin Mawae being in charge.
The Defense
The defense took a big hit in the offseason, losing DT Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins. But with Javon Kearse, Kyle Vanden Bosch outside at end, and a rotation of Jason Jones, Tony Brown, Jovan Haye, and Kevin Vickerson inside, the d-line should be the strength of the defense again. Veteran Keith Bulluck leads the linebacking core, with Stephen Tulloch and David Thorton as the other starters. The secondary returns all its starters, including probowl CB Cortland Finnegan.
The Key
The passing game. The Titans have a very tough schedule and to repeat last year’s results, Kerry Collins (or Vince Young, whoever is at QB) needs to be more consistent in getting the ball to the improved WR core.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2008 Record: 5-11
Projected 2009 Record: 6-10
The Offense
After that great playoff run in 2007, the ’08 Jaguars never really got going, and it started with the offense. The offensive line was ravaged by injuries last year, and could not keep QB David Garrard upright. Rookie first-round pick LT Eugene Monroe should help, along with a bounce-back year from C Brad Meester. In the skill positions, RB Maurice Jones-Drew will get all the carries now, with Fred Taylor gone, and free agent WR Torry Holt is the centerpiece of a rebuilt receiving core.
The Defense
This defense ranked 17th last year, and needs to improve. DT John Henderson is great, but fellow linemen Derrick Harvey and Atiyyah Ellison must also play well. Linebacker Daryl Smith leads a solid linebacking core that got rid of Mike Peterson, while the secondary of Brian Williams, Rashean Mathis, Reggie Nelson, and Sean Considine must have a bounce back year, as they were 24th in pass defense.
The Key
Health and consistency in the offensive line for David Garrard to have more time to pass and the defense to have more time to rest between series.