Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Thunder got a lot of help from the officials (totally agree with Doc about call in Game 5) and rode Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on their way to disposing of the Clippers, while the Spurs blitzed the over-matched and inexperienced Blazers in a quick 5 game series.
Obviously, the season-ending injury to Thunder PF Serge Ibaka is a big loss for OKC, as the Thunder lose their best shot blocker, best rebounder, and their third-best offensive player. While the Thunder have a decent stable of replacements in veteran Nick Collison and rookie Steven Adams, they don't provide the impact that Ibaka does, and will have their hands full with Tim Duncan.
In terms of style of play, both teams like to get up and down and score a lot of points, albeit in vastly different ways, as the Spurs depend on impeccable execution of an well-coached offensive system that works like a well-oiled machine no matter who is in the game, while the Thunder depend primarily on isolation-basketball, relying on the super talented Durant and Westbrook to create shots for themselves and their teammates. Against the well-coached Spurs, I see OKC having problems getting good shots down the stretch, especially if it is a close game (as they did against the Clippers in Games 4 and 5 especially)
In terms of matchups, I see Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker scoring equally well on each other (assuming Parker's hamstring is ok). Kevin Durant will get his points, but Kawhi Leonard should make him work hard to get it). And as mentioned earlier, Spurs will have the edge inside with Duncan and center Tiago Splitter against Collison and Kendrick Perkins. Off the bench, the Spurs have a big edge, as San Antonio hardly seems to miss a beat when Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, Manu Ginobili, and Boris Diaw get into the game, a luxury that the short-handed Thunder don't have outside Reggie Jackson and Caron Butler. In addition, without Ibaka, the Spurs will be able to finish at the rim a lot more easily (whether via Duncan or center Tiago Splitter, or penetration by their wings), as Kendrick Perkins, Adams, and Collison are not nearly the shot blockers Ibaka was.
With better coaching, rebounding, and depth off bench, I'll take San Antonio to return to the Finals.
Spurs in 7
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
The Heat dispatched of the trash-talking Nets rather easily, while the Pacers survived another scare from the upstart Wizards, winning in 6 games, to set up a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals.
The Pacers worked all year to get home court advantage throughout the East playoffs, and they have promptly gone 3-4 at home against the Hawks and Wizards, as they have come out not ready to play time and time again in this postseason.
Style of play will be key in this series. The Heat are most dangerous playing up-tempo with the litany of three-point shooters around LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, while the Pacers have to slow down and play half-court to set up their outstanding defense.
In terms of players, center Roy Hibbert is absolutely the key in this series. He has disappeared and reappeared more times than a magician during the first two rounds of this postseason. Simply put, when he plays well, so do the Pacers. When he plays horribly, so do the Pacers. And if Indiana hopes to realize their dream of advancing past their arch-rivals into the NBA Finals, as he can protect the rim against the likes of James and Wade. Also, when he's aggressive and focused on his offense and rebounding, Miami simply does not have answer for his 7' 2" frame inside, as the Heat's Chris Bosh and Chris Andersen are undersized.
Another key for the Pacers is the play of point guard George Hill, who was simply overwhelmed in last year's series. If Indy hopes to have any shot, he cannot turn the ball over as frequently as he did a year ago.
In the end, I think the trash-talking (I'm talking to you, Lance Stephenson) Pacers' run ends here, as the Heat move one step closer to their three-peat.
Heat in 6
