The Sports Scene: February 2014

The first ever outdoor, cold weather Super Bowl, although the forecast is for temperatures in the mid-40's.

QB: Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning

Wilson has proved all his doubters wrong in his first two years in the NFL. Basically a Frank Tarkenton 2.0 with his ability to buy time in the pocket by escaping pass rushers, while keeping his eyes down the field, he has simply been amazing to watch. Although he hasn't had great statistics this postseason (just 1 TD and 89.1 QB rating), he has managed the game well and made the plays when it counted (his 35-yard TD pass on 4th and 7 in NFC Championship Game was game winner). Meanwhile, on the other side, what can I say about Peyton Manning? Two years ago, it looked like his career was over and this year, he breaks the all-time record for TD passes in a season, throwing for 55, while leading the Broncos to their first Super Bowl since 1997. There was concern "Mr. Omaha" may struggle to the throw the ball in the often windy conditions of Met Life Stadium (he struggled in the wind, Week 12 in New England), but the weather forecast looks fairly positive, so I expect a great game from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Edge: Broncos

RB: Marshawn Lynch vs. Knowshon Moreno

Lynch AKA "Beast Mode" anchors the NFL's 4th ranked rushing offense, as he amassed over 1200 yards and a career best 14 TD this year. His punishing running style and ability to run over would-be tacklers will be a good test against a Denver defense that ranked 7th in stopping the run. Denver must contain Lynch enough so that Seattle cannot be as effective with play-action, which Wilson thrives on in the passing game. Meanwhile, while Manning and Denver's passing game sets up its running game, Knowshon Moreno has quietly had a career-year himself, as he ran for over 1000 yards and had 13 total TD (helping my fantasy team make the playoffs). Moreno, who has thrived behind the zone-blocking Denver offensive line, also can catch the ball out of the back field on check-downs from Manning, while backup Montee Ball has also been effective around the goal-line. The more Denver is able to run the ball effectively with Moreno and Ball, the more pressure it takes off of Manning and any potential weather conditions.

Edge: Seahawks
WR/TE: Percy Harvin/Golden Tate/Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse vs. Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker/Wes Welker/Julius Thomas

The Seahawks' wide receivers are not the biggest of names, nor should they be. Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Jermaine Kearse are all possession-type receivers, who run precise routes but don't really have big play potential (Kearse probably is the most explosive of the bunch). As a result, although Tate and Baldwin combined for an impressive 114 catches between them, Seattle ranked just 26th in passing offense during the regular season. However, Percy Harvin, who the Seahawks signed to a big contract in the offseason to be their #1 receiver, is finally healthy and may play a big role if he is 100% against a Denver secondary that has been susceptible to giving up big plays in the passing game.
For the Broncos, Peyton Manning definitely makes any receiver better, but the depth of Denver's pass catchers is impressive regardless. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker make up the best wide receiver duo in the league in terms of yardage, as Thomas caught 14 TD this year with 1400+ receiving yards, while Decker caught 11 TD for over 1100 yards. If that were not impressive enough, TE Julius Thomas (also a waiver-wire fantasy pickup that helped me make the playoffs) and WR Wes Welker also accounted for over 700 yards each. So it's safe to say Seattle's #1 pass defense will be facing its toughest test yet.

Edge: Broncos

Defense:
Seahawks:

Ranked #1 in the NFL in total yardage allowed, Seattle's defense is solid from front to back, and excels at stopping the run, ranking 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed. After forcing offenses into third-and-longs is when their #1 ranked pass defense thrives, as the Seahawks' defensive line of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Red Bryant, and Chris Clemons do a great job of generating a pass rush without blitzing, which often forces opposing quarterbacks to throw into coverage. And with the Legion of Boom secondary, headlined by three Pro Bowlers, CB Richard Sherman, who will tell you he is one of the top corners in the game, Earl Thomas, who had a career high 100 tackles to go with 5 intercepts, and Kam Chancellor, who is one of the hardest hitting safeties in the game. Against Peyton Manning and the #1 offense in the league, the Seahawks have to generate a consistent pass rush because, although the Seattle secondary is amazing, Denver has more weapons than they can cover.

Broncos:
Denver's defense, meanwhile, is middle of the pack, as they ranked 19th in the league in total yards allowed in the regular season, as injuries have depleted this defensive unit (they've lost top pass rusher Von Miller, as well as starting CB Chris Harris for season). The strength in their defense is against the run, as DT Terrance Knighton (aka Pot Roast) and LB Danny Trevathan have had outstanding seasons under defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. This could bode well against a Seattle offense that primarily relies on running the ball. Against the pass, though, is where Denver struggles mightily. Although veteran DE Shaun Phillips has given Denver's pass rush a boost without Miller, their secondary has still been susceptible to big plays, as veteran CBs Quentin Jammer and Champ Bailey have been ineffective on the other side of Pro Bowl CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and may need a lot of help from safeties Duke Ihenacho and Mike Adams to contain Harvin.

Edge: Seahawks

Special Teams

While the Broncos may have the better kicker in Matt Prater, the Seahawks have the edge at punter (Jon Ryan), kick coverage, and kick return, as Percy Harvin and Golden Tate are much more consistent than the sometimes erratic Trindon Holliday.

Edge: Seahawks

Coach:

John Fox returns to the Super Bowl for the first time in 10 years, as he has turned Denver around from a 4-12 laughingstock under Josh McDaniels to AFC Champions in just two years, after a successful career in Charlotte with the Panthers. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll has led a revolution since arriving in Seattle from USC, reshaping a defense and instilling his team's offense in a rising star in QB Russell Wilson.

Edge: Even

Bottom Line:

For the Broncos to win, Denver's offensive line must protect Peyton Manning from Seattle's group of outstanding pass rushers and allow him to find mismatches down the field with Denver's ridiculous depth of receivers. Also, they must contain the running game of Marshawn Lynch and prevent big plays in the passing game by containing Russell Wilson and not blowing assignments down the field.
Meanwhile, for the Seahawks, they absolutely have to be able to run the ball effectively and control the clock, which will keep Peyton Manning off the field as much as possible. Defensively, they must generate a pressure on Manning and try to coax him into a mistake (i.e. Tracy Porter's game-sealing interception in Super Bowl XLIV)

In the end, although great defense usually beats great offense, I'm taking Denver to win the game based on the fair weather forecast, which will allow Denver to spread Seattle out and throw the ball, and the belief that this game will stamp Manning's legacy as the greatest QB to ever play.

My prediction: