Here's why:
Certainly two quite different league
championship series, with the Tigers sweeping the Yankees, while the Giants had
to fight off three elimination games before beating the Cardinals.
So, let's break it down.
Lineups
The Tigers' lineup is well-balanced up and
down. In addition to big sluggers Prince Fielder and Triple Crown Winner Miguel
Cabrera, ALCS MVP Delmon Young, Jhonny Peralta, as well as leadoff hitter Austin Jackson have all been on fire this
postseason. Meanwhile, the Giants
have gone on their magical run (6-0 in elimination games) riding 3B Pablo
Sandoval, as well as unsung heroes such as NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro, who had a
LCS-record 14 hits in leading the Giants in their comeback against the
Cardinals, and LF Gregor Blanco. In order for the Giants to win their second
title in three years against a good Tigers pitching staff, they will need more
help from the heart of the order (Buster Posey, Hunter Pence)
Edge: Tigers
Pitching:
As far as pitching goes, let's start with the
Tigers, who have the probable AL Cy Young Winner for the second straight year
in Justin Verlander. After struggling during last year's postseason, Verlander
has been simply unhittable, and is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA thus far this
postseason. Behind him, the Tigers have gotten great pitching from Doug Fister,
Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez, who have been just as dominant as Verlander
this postseason in silencing the A's and Yankees' lineups. The closer situation
has been an issue for Detroit, as Jose Valverde has been replaced by lefty Phil
Coke, who was effective in shutting closing out games against the
Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Giants' pitching has been up and
down this postseason. Ryan Vogelsong, believe it or not, has been their most
consistent starting pitcher (2-0 with a 1.42 ERA), as Madison Bumgarner and
Matt Cain have struggled to match their regular season dominance thus far this
postseason. Barry Zito, who starts Game 1 tonight, rounds out the San Francisco
rotation, with former NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum available throughout the
series as a long reliever. If any of the starters struggle, Lincecum could
become a real x-factor in providing long relief. As far as relievers, Sergio
Romo has been dominant as closer, while the rest of the bullpen (Javier Lopez,
George Kontos, Jeremy Affeldt) has been solid as well.
Edge: Tigers
It always comes down to pitching, so the
biggest key in the series is whether sometimes anemic Giants lineup can find
ways to generate offense against the great starting pitching of the
Tigers. In the end, I don't think they will be able to. As long as the
Tigers aren't rusty (having not played in a week), they have the better lineup
and pitching to claim their fifth World Championship, and first since 1984.
Tigers in 6.
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