Wednesday, October 24, 2012

2012 World Series Prediction

And the 2012 World Series Champion will be...


Here's why:
Certainly two quite different league championship series, with the Tigers sweeping the Yankees, while the Giants had to fight off three elimination games before beating the Cardinals.
So, let's break it down.
Lineups
The Tigers' lineup is well-balanced up and down. In addition to big sluggers Prince Fielder and Triple Crown Winner Miguel Cabrera, ALCS MVP Delmon Young, Jhonny Peralta, as well as leadoff hitter Austin Jackson have all been on fire this postseason. Meanwhile, the Giants have gone on their magical run (6-0 in elimination games) riding 3B Pablo Sandoval, as well as unsung heroes such as NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro, who had a LCS-record 14 hits in leading the Giants in their comeback against the Cardinals, and LF Gregor Blanco. In order for the Giants to win their second title in three years against a good Tigers pitching staff, they will need more help from the heart of the order (Buster Posey, Hunter Pence)
Edge: Tigers

Pitching:
As far as pitching goes, let's start with the Tigers, who have the probable AL Cy Young Winner for the second straight year in Justin Verlander. After struggling during last year's postseason, Verlander has been simply unhittable, and is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA thus far this postseason. Behind him, the Tigers have gotten great pitching from Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez, who have been just as dominant as Verlander this postseason in silencing the A's and Yankees' lineups. The closer situation has been an issue for Detroit, as Jose Valverde has been replaced by lefty Phil Coke, who was effective in shutting closing out games against the Yankees. 
Meanwhile, the Giants' pitching has been up and down this postseason. Ryan Vogelsong, believe it or not, has been their most consistent starting pitcher (2-0 with a 1.42 ERA), as Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain have struggled to match their regular season dominance thus far this postseason. Barry Zito, who starts Game 1 tonight, rounds out the San Francisco rotation, with former NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum available throughout the series as a long reliever. If any of the starters struggle, Lincecum could become a real x-factor in providing long relief. As far as relievers, Sergio Romo has been dominant as closer, while the rest of the bullpen (Javier Lopez, George Kontos, Jeremy Affeldt) has been solid as well.
Edge: Tigers

It always comes down to pitching, so the biggest key in the series is whether sometimes anemic Giants lineup can find ways to generate offense against the great starting pitching of the Tigers. In the end, I don't think they will be able to. As long as the Tigers aren't rusty (having not played in a week), they have the better lineup and pitching to claim their fifth World Championship, and first since 1984.
Tigers in 6.

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