1. Milwaukee Brewers
2011 Record: 96-66
Projected 2012 Record: 89-73
The Lineup
The Brewers’ lineup took a big hit in the offseason with 1B Prince Fielder defecting to sign with the Detroit Tigers. To replace his big bat in the lineup, Milwaukee signed 3B Aramis Ramirez, an upgrade over Casey McGehee at the position. MVP LF Ryan Braun is back, after escaping from a suspension for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. RF Corey Hart, 2B Rickie Weeks, and CF Nyjer Morgan are all good hitters, but all eyes will be at 1B and what production they will get out of Mat Gamel.
The Pitching
The Brewers’ pitching was finally decent last year, in reaching the NLCS. This year, look for about the same results, with Zack Grienke and Yovani Gallardo a pretty good 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation. Meanwhile, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson are all decent end of the rotation pitchers who should contribute about 10 wins a piece. The bullpen is equally as good, and anchored by hard-throwing closer John Axford, as well as set-up man Francisco Rodriguez, who was solid after coming over from the Mets at the end of last year.
The Key
This Brewer team is nowhere as good as the team last year, which probably should have made the World Series. However, with the rest of the division down as well, I think Milwaukee has enough offense and pitching to repeat as division champs.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
2011 Record: 86-76
Projected 2012 Record: 84-78
2011 Record: 86-76
Projected 2012 Record: 84-78
The Lineup
The defending champions actually ranked first in the NL last season, as Lance Berkman, the 2011 NL Comeback Player of Year, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols formed a formidable middle of the lineup. With Pujols gone to the Angels, the Cardinals retool by adding OF Carlos Beltran, formally of the Mets and Giants last year, who drive in 84 RBI last year and will be expected to play a big role in whether St. Louis gets a chance to defend its crown in the playoffs this year. St. Louis is also hoping for a breakout year from 3B David Freese, who is coming off a sensational World Series MVP performance.
The Pitching
Adam Wainwright, who missed all of last year with an elbow injury, is back, along with ace Chris Carpenter. Behind the big two, Jaime Garcia looks to continue his progress as a reliable front-end starter, while Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are solid back of the rotation starters. In the bullpen, it was closer by committee last year, and it was almost comical the way Tony La Russa had to juggle his relievers last year, but hey, it worked. Look for Jason Motte or Fernando Salas to be top candidates to claim the job this year.
Adam Wainwright, who missed all of last year with an elbow injury, is back, along with ace Chris Carpenter. Behind the big two, Jaime Garcia looks to continue his progress as a reliable front-end starter, while Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are solid back of the rotation starters. In the bullpen, it was closer by committee last year, and it was almost comical the way Tony La Russa had to juggle his relievers last year, but hey, it worked. Look for Jason Motte or Fernando Salas to be top candidates to claim the job this year.
The Key
In order for the Cardinals to return to the playoffs and defend their crown, they must get offensive production from aging veterans in Holliday, Berkman, and Beltran, as well as starting pitching that can hold up throughout the year (Carpenter is already on the DL).
3. Cincinnati Reds
2011 Record: 79-83
Projected 2012 Record: 82-80
The Lineup
The Reds offense was great again last year, ranking second in the league in runs scored. 1B Joey Votto and RF Jay Bruce are great power hitters, built for playing at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, and Brandon Phillips is still producing at the top of the lineup. CF Drew Stubbs and LF Ryan Ludwick are also solid offensively. But depth is an issue if anyone gets hurt.
The Pitching
The Reds rotation is what imploded last year, dropping a 91-win team down to 79. Getting Mat Latos from the Padres as a #2 starter behind Johnny Cueto should help (9-14, 3.47 ERA last year), but Bronson Arroyo is an aging veteran in decline, and how high is the ceiling on Mike Leake and Homer Bailey. Lots of question marks in the bullpen as well, as closer Ryan Madson, brought in from the Phillies, is out for the year.
The Key
Pitching, pitching, pitching. The offense shouldn't be a big issue, but for the Reds to return to the playoffs in 2012, the question marks in the rotation and bullpen must be answered.
The Lineup
The Cubs’ offense was in the middle of the pack last year, rankings 8th in the NL in runs scored. There's not much to suggest that it will be much better this year. Veteran CF Marlon Byrd is coming off his best season as a pro, and Starlin Castro is coming off a great year (.307, 66 RBI, 22 SB). But Alfonso Soriano can't hit for average anymore (aside from his pathetic defense in LF) and replacing their leading hitter, Aramis Ramirez with the likes of Ian Stewart or Jeff Baker at 3B won't help; this team is in full rebuilding mode.
The Pitching
They finally got rid of Carlos Zambrano, a locker room cancer, as Ryan Dempster is this team's ace now. Aside from Dempster, Matt Garza is coming off a good season, as is new pick-up Paul Maholm. But the back end should really struggle. Randy Wells and Jeff Samardzija are not proven major league starting pitchers. In the 'pen, Carlos Marmol is wildly inconsistent and Kerry Wood may be called for by new manager Dale Sveum before the season is over to retake the closer role.
The Key
The Cubs are a team in transition. They still have productive veterans in Byrd, Dempster, and Garza, and a rising star in Castro. But the rest of their roster is filled with players in decline or unproven major leaguers. Key for Northsiders: Team has to buy in the Sveum and Theo Epstein's rebuilding program, and show progress for the future.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
2011 Record: 72-90
Projected 2012 Record: 70-92
2011 Record: 72-90
Projected 2012 Record: 70-92
The Lineup
The Pirates were interesting for a couple months in 2011, but in the end fell well short of the postseason once again. CF Andrew McCutchen is still the lone star in Pittsburgh’s lineup and has five-star potential. Around him, though, it seems the likes of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Garrett Jones, and Pedro Alvarez have all reached their ceiling as major league players. None of them hit for a high-average, and don't have much power either. An interesting story will be how 3B Casey McGehee rebounds after being traded after having a horrible sophomore season in Milwaukee. If he can regain his rookie season form, the Pirates' lineup improves tremendously.
The Pitching
The Bucs brought in some veteran starting pitching in the offseason, acquiring ex-Yankee A.J. Burnett and the oft-injured Eric Bedard. They should help out a rotation which is filled out with #4 and 5 with little to no upside in James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Charlie Morton. The bullpen is actually the strength of this team, with all-stars Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek.
The Key
For the Pirates to avoid their 20th straight losing season, the question marks in the Pirates’ pitching staff and in the lineup must be answered.
6. Houston Astros
2011 Record: 56-106
Projected 2012 Record: 54-108
2011 Record: 56-106
Projected 2012 Record: 54-108
The Lineup
Sigh, we have reached the joke that was the worst team in baseball last year and should be again this year.
In losing a team-record 106 games, my hometown team's offense was dreadful, especially after trading away all-stars Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Declining 1B Carlos Lee and his gigantic contract finally expires after this season, a relief for a team in a complete rebuilding. 2B Jose Altuve and LF J.D. Martinez are the best prospects on this team, and both hit fairly well after getting called up at the end of last season. C Jason Castro, a former #1 pick, tries to make his return from knee surgery as well, but the rest of the lineup consists of minor leaguers.
In losing a team-record 106 games, my hometown team's offense was dreadful, especially after trading away all-stars Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Declining 1B Carlos Lee and his gigantic contract finally expires after this season, a relief for a team in a complete rebuilding. 2B Jose Altuve and LF J.D. Martinez are the best prospects on this team, and both hit fairly well after getting called up at the end of last season. C Jason Castro, a former #1 pick, tries to make his return from knee surgery as well, but the rest of the lineup consists of minor leaguers.
The Pitching
The Astros’ pitching was even worse last year, finishing last in the NL in ERA. Bud Norris is the team's best pitcher, and is coming off a team-low 3.77 ERA season. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez is decent as well. But behind Norris and Rodriguez, this rotation is an abomination, consisting of disappointment flops (J.A. Happ) and veterans with no potential (Kyle Weiland/Lucas Harrell). Look for future ace Jordan Lyles to be recalled from AAA sometime in the middle of the season and provide a little hope. In the bullpen, ex-starter Brett Myers will start the season as closer, with David Carpenter and Wilton Lopez also decent options.
The Key
Hope for a miracle? This team has the potential to lose the most games in MLB history and if it wants to avoid this feat, it better find a lot of offensive production and pitching somewhere.
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