Sunday, February 5, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Preview: Giants vs. Patriots

Let's rock it like it's 2008. It's New England vs. New York in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII in Indianapolis tonight in Super Bowl XLVI. And just like four years ago, you've come here for the complete breakdown.

QB: Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady
Four years ago, this was a mismatch coming into the game, with Tom Brady with his 50 TD season and the perfect Pats going for history. This time, it's a different story. QB Eli Manning has elevated himself into the upper-echelon of quarterbacks in the league, and with a victory will surpass his big brother with his second Super Bowl ring. His rapport with his young group of receivers is sensational right now, as they carved apart Atlanta, Green Bay, and San Francisco's defenses on the way to Indy. Meanwhile, Tom Terrific, going for his fourth Super Bowl title, has been great as usual, throwing for 5200 yards in the regular season, maestro of a Bill Belichick offense that is centered on getting the ball in space to the tight-end, as well as to the slot receiver.
Slight Edge: Patriots
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs vs. BenJarvus Green-Ellis 
Both teams' running games are really just used to set up the play-action passes down the field. The Giants' running game, ranked last in the regular season has picked up a tad bit in the playoffs, though, with the two headed monster of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw averaging over 100 yards a game in their three playoff victories. Meanwhile, New England has been creative in trying to move the ball on the ground, not only by using Green-Ellis, but also handing off to TE Aaron Hernandez at times to get production.
Edge: Giants
WR/TE: Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz/Mario Manningham vs. Rob Gronkowski/Wes Welker/Aaron Hernandez
The Giants' wide receivers, while young, have matured and emerged as dependable targets for Eli Manning this season. Victor Cruz has really come out of nowhere to break the Giants' receiving records, while Hakeem Nicks, when healthy, is a solid #1 receiver that can stretch the field for you. New England's patch-work secondary, ranked 31st against the pass during in the regular season, which at times has even used offensive players like Julian Edelman to play defensive back must prevent big plays from the Giant wide receivers, who can break a long touchdown at any given moment.
Meanwhile, New England's receiving threats start with super tight-end Rob Gronkowski, who scored an NFL-high 17 touchdowns and WR Wes Welker, who led the league with 122 receptions. Gronkowski is simply a matchup nightmare in the red-zone and practically unguardable one-on-one in the middle of the field, as is Welker on the outside. It will be up to the Giants' pass rush to get pressure on Tom Brady in order to help out New York's secondary in coverage.
Edge: Even
Defense:
Giants:
Ranked 27th in the regular season, New York has definitely picked it up when it has mattered most. In their final two regular season games, and in their three playoff games, all wins, Big Blue's D has been lights out, shutting down the opposition with a ferocious pass rush led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora. In order to beat Tom Brady tonight, they have to get the same kind of consistent pressure on him that they did four years ago in Glendale, and force New England to kick field goals instead of score touchdowns in the redzone, as well as maybe force a couple of turnovers to make an impact on the game.
Patriots:
This patchwork defensive unit is nowhere close to the dominant force it was several years ago. However, Bill Belichick has gotten the 31st ranked defense in the regular season to perform in the playoffs, as New England shut down both the Broncos and Ravens in their two playoff wins. Although they will probably give up a lot of yards tonight, the key for the Patriots' defense is to stop the big plays from the Giant wide-receivers and get pressure on Eli Manning and get him uncomfortable early in the game (something the 49ers did fairly well in the NFC Championship). They must also stymie a mediocre Giant running game and force Eli into throwing a lot in the game, and a higher chance of making a mistake, which will give Tom Brady and the offense a short field and easy points on the board.
Edge: Giants
Special Teams
Both teams have mediocre kick and punt returning teams, while both kickers are solid as well.
Edge: Even
Coach:
Tom Coughlin has come a long way in New York, from being a militaristic dictator when he came in 2004 to winning a Super Bowl and taking this team from 7-7 to the Super Bowl. There's no doubt that the bond he has with his team is strong, and the fact that he has performed despite the constant pressure in New York shows how underrated as a coach he truly is. Meanwhile, all Bill Belichick does is win. A fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last decade for his team, which is always the #1 or #2 seed in the conference and has built a tradition of excellence that is unmatched in the league. The job he's done with a patchwork secondary over the last couple of seasons, while evolving his offense to central more on the tight-end has been remarkable. What a coaching matchup.
Slight Edge: Patriots
Bottom Line:
For the Giants to win, they must stick to what has gotten them five straight wins and into this game: big plays in the passing game and a ferocious and constant pass rush that has shut down the opposition's passing game. Eli Manning must continue his outstanding play and match Tom Brady pass for pass as well, as this game could turn into a shootout.
Meanwhile, for the Patriots, they have to limit the big plays of the Giant wide receivers by making open-field tackles. Offensively, they have to finish drives off with touchdowns, whether to the banged-up Rob Gronkowski, in the slot to Wes Welker, or some other unorthodox means Belichick has cooked up.
In the end, I just have to go with the hotter team, and a defense that has been playing lights out to do as it did four years ago in the desert, get a consistent pass rush on Tom Brady, allowing little brother Eli to beat big brother's arch-rival again, in the House that Peyton Built.
My prediction: 3027
Last week's record: 2-0
Season record: 171-95

 

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