Super Bowl XLV Preview: Steelers vs. Packers

How about them Cowboys? First team to play in the Super Bowl it hosts. Oh, what. Cowboys were terrible this year? Aww, what a shame, Jerry Jones. We'll just have to settle for this awesome match-up instead.(lowest point-spread since Super Bowl XVI)
QBs: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Aaron Rodgers

It's been a long year for Big Ben Roethlisberger. Coming off his four-game suspension for violating the league's conduct policy, Roethlisberger had another solid season leading the Steelers, throwing for 3200 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. Although he struggled statistically against the great Baltimore and New York defenses, his intangibles always pose a problem. His strength and elusiveness to escape sacks, rushing ability, and creativity outside the pocket will have to be contained by Green Bay.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has been the hottest quarterback in the world, leading the Pack to the Super Bowl with virtually no running game all season long. Through four career playoff games, he has the highest quarterback rating of all time and comes into the Super Bowl in that elite status once reserved strictly for Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. His quick release against the blitz and ability to run may pose problems for Pittsburgh tonight.

Slight Edge: Packers

RBs: Rashard Mendenhall vs. James Starks

Mendenhall had a strong 2010, rushing for 1273 yards, good for 7th best in the league. The Steelers tend to lean on their running game against strong passing defenses to keep the pressure of Ben Roethlisberger, and when they are effective early in the game, Mendenhall and backups Mewelde Moore and Isaac Redman are tough to stop. The Packers, meanwhile, struggled to find their ground game all season long, after losing starting RB Ryan Grant in week one. During the postseason, however, rookie James Starks has emerged as a star, rushing for 263 yards in their three playoff wins. Whatever success he has against this great Pittsburgh front seven only alleviates some of the burden from Aaron Rodgers.

Edge: Steelers

WR/TEs: Hines Ward-Mike Wallace-Heath Miller vs. Greg Jennings-Donald Driver-James Jones

The Steelers WR core is one of the most inexperienced in the league, and has had issues from time-to-time the whole season. Hines Ward, the veteran, is a possession receiver (and ferocious run blocker), while Mike Wallace may be the fastest WR in the league. Steady Heath Miller serves as Big Ben's security blanket and is used on check-downs when Big Ben is under pressure. The Packers, meanwhile, may have the best group of receivers in the league for Aaron Rodgers to throw to. Jennings, Driver, and Jones are all threats to score every time they catch the ball on short slant and crossing routes because of their great hands and acceleration. They should take advantage of a shaky Pittsburgh secondary.

Edge: Packers

Defense:

Steelers:

Blitzburg has had to overcome a lot of adversity this season, with lingering injuries to safety Troy Polamalu causing the secondary to be horrendous at times this season. In addition, All-Pro outside linebacker James Harrison has been at the center of controversy this season with all his questionable hits and consequent fines. They, however, remain the top defense in the league, as they stuff the run (surrendered league low 63 yards per game rushing) and attack the quarterback in the pass (led the league with 48 sacks). In order to stifle Rodgers and the Pack attack, they will need to bring the heat to avoid getting picked apart in the back.

Packers:

Green Bay's defense is often under appreciated with the Packers' offense so efficient. But defensive coordinator Dom Capers has built in two years a monster 3-4 unit led by linebacker Clay Matthews and cornerback Charles Woodson. The fifth best unit in the league, they similarly like to attack opposing quarterbacks in the passing game by blitzing (2nd in league in sacks) and depending on their outstanding secondary to cover one-on-one. Ex-Texan Tramon Williams has emerged as a shutdown corner to complement Woodson in the back and has three picks in three playoff wins. They can be susceptible to the run, however, ranking just 18th in the league in rushing defense.

Slight Edge: Steelers

Special Teams

Pittsburgh's return game is superior, while Green Bay's kicker Mason Crosby and especially punter Tim Masthay are better.

Slight Edge: Packers

Coach:

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin got his team to the Super Bowl despite having to overcome the four game suspension of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and losing starting offensive linemen seemingly every week. Speaking of injuries, what a job Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy has done this year. 16 Packers are currently on injured reserve, including starting RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley and he still guided his team through the NFC as the #6 seed.
Edge: Even

Bottom Line:

For the Steelers to win, they must be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers without getting picked apart in the secondary. Offensively, Pittsburgh needs to get its running game going early and often to keep the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger. For the Packers, key #1 should be protecting Aaron Rodgers so that he can get the ball down the field to a his great group of receivers. Defensively, stopping the run will help slow down Ben Roethlisberger and his creativity in the pocket. I've gone back and forth with this one for a long time, but in the end, I have to go with Pittsburgh's slightly better defense and running game. Aaron Rodgers can be great and prove me wrong, but I think it is just too much to depend on- especially against Pittsburgh's D.

My prediction: 24 23

Last week's record: 2-0
Season record: 169-97