After a long and nasty lockout, the season is finally here, and begins tomorrow on Christmas Day with a quintuple header.
Here are my projections for the upcoming season.
Western Conference
1. Dallas Mavericks- Defending NBA champions had a busy offseason, losing Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, and JJ Barea, but retooled adding Vince Carter, Lamar Odom, and Delonte West. In the end, Dallas' front-line defense hurts a little, but it's backcourt play improves, and the Mavs should be able to push the tempo even more offensively.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder- The young Thunder had an outstanding season, advancing all the way to the Conference Finals before falling to eventual champion Dallas. The Kendrick Perkins acquisition should pay off even more in his second year with the team, while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook return and should only get better as a top-tier scoring duo in the league.
3. Los Angeles Lakers- Yeah, yeah, Clippers this, Clippers that. Lakers are still best team in town with Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum, and a more defensive-minded head coach in Mike Brown.
4. San Antonio Spurs- Let's not forget, the Spurs won 61 games last
year, before falling shockingly to Memphis in the first round. The trio
of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker when healthy is still among the best in
the league, but for the Spurs, the emergence of secondary role players
such as DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, and James Anderson will determine how
far and durable this team is in this lockout-shortened year.
5. Los Angeles Clippers- Finally, it seems, LA's other team has the stars: Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler. But with all the new acquisitions and a shortened training camp, how quickly will things come together for the Clippers? Frontline behind DeAndre Jordan and Griffin also looks super thin now.
6. Memphis Grizzlies- The forgotten team in the West this preseason has
been the Grizz, which upset the Spurs last year and took the Thunder to
seven games in the second round. Now they get top scorer Rudy Gay back
from injury, and he will join Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol in one of the
best frontcourts in the league. The guard-play of O.J. Mayo and Mike
Conley determine how high the ceiling is on this team.
7. Portland Trailblazers- The Brandon Roy retirement is a sad story, as injuries wreck another such promising young star's career. But, Portland must move on, with breakout-star PF LaMarcus Aldridge as the focal point. Loved the pickup of Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford in the backcourt to replace Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez; only question mark on team is at center position where veterans Camby and Kurt Thomas will have to stay healthy.
8. Houston Rockets- Really young 43-win team lacking a superstar returns after an offseason that saw a potential trade that would have unloaded its two best players in Luis Scola and Kevin Martin get rejected, and the hiring of a more defensive-minded coach in Kevin McHale. New philosophy and addition of C Samuel Dalembert should help defense and team reach playoffs.
9. Denver Nuggets- George Karl's team was one of the great surprises in the post-Melo trade, winning 50 games and gelling as a complete team. Without all the players who are stranded in China unable to return (Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler), I just don't think they'll be able to return to the playoffs. But a lot of upside here with a very young team.
10. Utah Jazz- Jazz have really young front court with a lot of upside, in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, but until they develop this is still Paul Millsap and Devin Harris' team.
11. Golden State Warriors- Interesting to see how Marc Jackson does in
his first season as a full-time head coach. Lot of great offensive
players in Oakland (Ellis/Curry backcourt one of best young combos in
West), but does the team have the talent to buy into Jackson's defensive philosophy? I don't think so, at least, not in the first year.
12. Sacramento Kings- Backcourt of the future is hopefully secure, with Jimmer Fredette and Tyreke Evans (as well as Marcus Thornton), but frontcourt remains a question mark. Lot of good pieces but needs to improve defensively as a team even try to push for playoffs.
13. Phoenix Suns- Veterans Steve Nash and Grant Hill are still effective
veterans, but this should be another building year in the desert, as I
just don't see enough wing talent on this team.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves- I love Rick Adelman as a coach, and Minny should definitely be more fun to watch when they are running his high-tempo offense this year, especially with the additions of Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams). But they're still a couple seasons a way from being a threat.
15. New Orleans Hornets- CP3 is gone, but at least New Orleans can move
on and look to the future. That future isn't this year, though.
Backcourt depth is nonexistent, very little outside shooting on this
team.
Eastern Conference
1.Miami Heat- Year Two of LeBron's quest for a ring with D-Wade; Miami has more depth at the wing spots this year, adding Shane Battier to provide veteran presence, defense, and outside shooting to the bench. Still did not address center, point guard issues in the offseason.
2. Chicago Bulls- Rip Hamilton should add much needed outside and mid-range shooting at the SG position. Play of front-line (Noah, Boozer, Deng) determines how far Chicago goes this season.
3. Boston Celtics- Still don't understand the Kendrick Perkins trade last year for Boston. Ultimately that lack a center presence opened up driving lanes for Wade and LeBron to eliminate the C's. Liked the pickup of Brandon Bass, should be very good backup or fill-in for Kevin Garnett.
4. New York Knicks- Tyson Chandler certainly makes frontline of Knicks elite, with Amare and Carmelo, but backcourt is still an issue.
5. Orlando Magic- Will Dwight stay or go? That question will detract from Orlando trying to make one last push with this group of veteran three-point shooters around Howard.
6. Indiana Pacers- Addition of all-star PF David West to Indy gives the Pacers a strong front court, with Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert.
7. Philadelphia 76ers- Doug Collins' core of young talent (Iguodala, Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young) takes a step forward on the offensive end of the floor, and hopefully Evan Turner emerges as a starting SG in this league.
8. Atlanta Hawks- Bland offseason for the Hawks, who stay with the status quo, only bringing in veteran over-the-hill swingmen in Tracy McGrady and Jerry Stackhouse. Still not enough in the backcourt for Atlanta to be top-tier in the East.
9. Milwaukee Bucks- SG Stephen Jackson is a wing that can light it up at times, something Scott Skiles' team has lacked the last couple of years. PG Brandon Jennings' health is key, as the Bucks try to return to the postseason.
10. Detroit Pistons- Cutting Rip to save the cash shows the state of this franchise. Expect rookie Brandon Knight to surpass Rodney Stuckey at PG at one point. Other than Prince, frontcourt is horrendous.
11. New Jersey Nets- NJ tried and failed to get Dwight Howard in the offseason, so in the final season in Newark, it's basically a two-man team with C Brook Lopez (when he comes back from foot surgery) and all-star PG Deron Williams.
12. Washington Wizards- Lot of young, athletic pieces here, with good backcourt (John Wall, Nick Young). Growth needs to come on the front-line defensively from Andray Blatche and Javale McGee.
13. Charlotte Bobcats- Maggette for Jackson swap is really a wash,
Charlotte still lacks a complementary wing for PG D.J. Augustin.
Interesting to see how rookies Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo fair in
their first NBA season.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers- Full rebuild time with Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson, #1 and #4 overall picks coming in. Don't see much improvement here.
15. Toronto Raptors- Oh, Canada. At least you have hockey. Apart from Bargnani and DeRozan, this is a team lacks any solid NBA talent.
