Sunday, May 17, 2015

2015 NBA Playoffs: My Conference Finals Preview


Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors

My hometown Rockets became the 9th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 series deficit and win the series, getting a triple double from James Harden in Game 5, a historic comeback fueled by Corey Brewer and Josh Smith in Game 6, and a dominant defensive performance in Game 7. This will be their first conference finals appearance since 1995. Meanwhile, Golden State survived a brief scare from the tough defense of the Grizzlies before advancing with three straight wins behind clinical offensive execution. 

This series should be fun to watch, as both teams are extremely explosive offensively, led by the MVP Stephen Curry and the runner-up for MVP James Harden. Around them, Golden State has a significant backcourt depth advantage, with fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson, and Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa off the bench. The Rockets have not played a backcourt as good as this one in the playoffs and could have trouble defensively. Both Klay and Steph thrive on moving without the basketball and running off screens and the Rockets do not have quick guards that defend shooters well (i.e. Jason Terry struggled with JJ Reddick for the first half of the Clippers series).

Down low, Josh Smith is the ultimate X-factor, as his play in the first two rounds elevated the Rockets to series wins. All in all, Smith, Dwight Howard, and Terence Jones have to outplay Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, and David Lee in order for the Rockets to keep pace with the high flying Warriors.

While the Warriors have the better guards and the Rockets better low-post players, the wings may ultimately decide the series, with Harrison Barnes and Trevor Ariza's shooting and slashing ability, as well as the energy off the bench with Andre Iguodala and Corey Brewer.

I will be rooting for my Rockets to make it to the Finals for the first time since 1995, but I think Golden State's home court proves to the difference in the end.
Warriors in 7







Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta HawksThe Cavaliers won a thrilling series with Bulls, their first without Kevin Love and with a hobbled Kyrie Irving, while the Hawks survived several Paul Pierce daggers and took advantage of the Wizards not having John Wall for Games 2-4 to reach their first ever Eastern Conference Finals. 

Atlanta has not been impressive this postseason, as they have struggled mightily to score at times. But given the Cavaliers' injury problems, they might not be a big problem. 

Match-up wise, PG should be fun to watch, with the starters Kyrie Irving (assuming he is healthy) and Jeff Teague, and the backups, in Matthew Dellavedova and Dennis Shroeder. At SG, Atlanta hopes to get Kyle Korver back on track, while Cleveland has depth in JR Smith and Iman Shumpert. Inside, Al Horford and Paul Millsap's offensive skills against the defense of Timofey Mosgov and Tristan Thompson should be fun to watch. 

At the wings, stopping LeBron James will be a huge key for the Hawks. DeMarre Carroll is playing the best basketball of his career at the moment and he and possibly Paul Millsap (when Cleveland downsizes) will have his hands full with James, who is carrying the Cavaliers like it's 2009 again. 

Speaking of downsizing, I expect to see a lot of that in this series. The Hawks love to finish games with Shroeder in the game with Jeff Teague, while Cleveland can always put LeBron at PF and Tristan Thompson at center and lose nothing defensively.

In the end, I think Cleveland has more experience, more depth, and the best player on the floor. I'll be pulling for you, Atlanta, but your magical season ends here. 

Cavaliers in 6

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