The Sports Scene: Super Bowl XLIX Preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks

The miracle comeback and Deflategate is behind us and tonight, Seattle will attempt to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots in 2003-04. Here's my game preview.

QB: Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson

Tom Brady looked old and on the verge of retirement in an ugly Week 4 Monday Night Football loss in Kansas City. Since then (which also corresponded with TE Rob Gronkowski's resurgence and reacclimation to the full route tree), he's thrown for 35 TD and just 9 INT, while leading the Patriots to a 12-2 record, and their 6th Super Bowl in the last 14 years. Although New England's running game has been amazing behind LaGarrette Blount, I expect Brady will have to throw the ball early and often to Gronk, Julian Edelman, and Brandon Lafell against a tough Seattle defense. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has followed up last year's championship, with another solid season directing Seattle's offense. While he was awful for 55 minutes against the Packers in the NFC Championship game (throwing 4 INT), he showed up when it mattered the most, leading the Seahawks to 3 TD drives to pull off the miracle. Against the Patriots' good secondary, he will have to be careful with the ball (in pocket and on runs), since you wouldn't think a Belichick-coached team would be unable to capitalize on turnovers.

Edge: Patriots

RB: LeGarrette Blount/Shane Vereen vs. Marshawn Lynch

Blount was cut from the Steelers midseason and has thrived in his return to New England, as he totaled 281 yards in five regular season games to close the year, and gashed the Colts in the AFC Championship game, rushing for 148 yards and scoring 3 TD. Vereen hasn't done much this postseason but could be key in this game sneaking out of the backfield and catching passes when Brady is under pressure in this game. Against the Seahawks' 3rd ranked rush defense, which stifled Green Bay's Eddy Lacy in the NFC Championship, any yardage the Patriots get from Blount on the game ground will be beneficial to Tom Brady and the passing game. Meanwhile, Lynch, despite all his media antics, anchors the NFL's top rushing offense, as he amassed over 1300 yards and 13 TD this year. He has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in their two playoff wins and should have decent success against a Patriots' defense that ranked 9th in stopping the run in the regular season.

Edge: Seahawks
WR/TE: Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski/Brandon Lafell vs. Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Luke Willson

Edelman runs the same sort of routes from the slot that Wes Welker used to run. However, the #1 target from Tom Brady is superhuman TE Rob Gronkowski, who is an absolutely matchup nightmare, who runs crisp routes from the TE, slot, and wide positions, and is a physical freak, who is hard to bring down. It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks deal with Gronk because I don't see them being to matchup one-on-one on the outside with him. Finally, Brandon Lafell really turned it on late in the season as a true deep ball threat. Meanwhile, Seattle runs the ball a lot, so it has allowed them to stick with a group of no-name receivers, who run precise routes and find the holes in opposing team's zones. Baldwin is the #1 target as a pure possession receiver, while Kearse is the deep threat who has caught two long touchdowns this postseason. Both receivers may struggle against the Pats' physical corners. Meanwhile, Luke Willson has emerged late in the year as a decent receiving tight-end, especially when Russell Wilson is out of the pocket, escaping the rush.

Edge: Patriots

Defense:

Patriots:

New England's defense was middle of the pack, as they ranked 13th in the league in total yards allowed in the regular season. They were better at stopping the run, which they will need in this game against Seattle's top ranked rushing attack. Their defensive line is anchored by gigantic DT Vince Wilfork, who will look to disrupt Seattle's interior running game. DE Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones will have to set the edge in helping contain Russell Wilson. The linebacking core has matured as the season has progressed, but Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins will have their hands full in trying to bring down Marshawn Lynch. New England has a decent secondary, with the outstanding Darrelle Revis and physical Brandon Browner out there. It'll be interesting to see who Revis covers most in this game, whether the speedster Kearse or the primary target Baldwin.

Seahawks:

Ranked #1 in the NFL for the second straight year in total yardage allowed, Seattle's defense is solid from front to back, and is the #1 pass defense in the league, which may bother Tom Brady and the Patriots. Seattle rarely blitzes, which shows you that they depend on outstanding pass rush from their defensive line, led by DE Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. The linebacking core has playmakers in Bruce Irvin, KJ Wright, and Bobby Wagner. That's not even mentioning last year's Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith, who has not played much this year. Finally, the Legion of Boom secondary is still the best in the league, with three outstanding corners in Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, and Jeremy Lane, and two outstanding safeties in the rangy Earl Thomas the hard-hitting Kam Chancellor. Seattle's defense has been average against TE this year, so we'll see how they fare against a New England attack whose #1 target is a great one, in Gronk.

Edge: Seahawks

Special Teams

Between Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, the Patriots have a dynamic return game, while Seattle will have to rely on Doug Baldwin again (he fumbled on kickoff in NFC Championship Game), as their primary returner in Paul Richardson is lost for the season with an ACL injury. The Patriots also have a more accurate kicker in Stephen Gostkowski (although Seattle's Steven Hauschka has a bigger leg) and better punter in Ryan Allen.

Edge: Patriots

Coach:

Pete Carroll will try to win back to back Super Bowls and create the start of a dynasty in the Pacific Northwest, while Bill Belichick, reputation tarnished or not by the Deflategate scandal, leads New England back to its 6th Super Bowl in 14 years.

Edge: Even

Bottom Line:
For Seattle to repeat as champions, they have to be able to keep the game low scoring and control the time of possession by running the ball with Marshawn Lynch. Getting pressure on Tom Brady with their front four is also a must, as New England may have an edge with their offensive schemes and the way they use Rob Gronkowski in this game.
Meanwhile, for the Patriots, they have to contain the Seattle running game, whether it Lynch or Wilson running the ball. Green Bay had success when they kept Wilson in the pocket and forced him to throw the ball into coverage. New England has to do the same tonight. Offensively, although they would like to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch, the game will be won or lost on whether Brady can get rid of the ball quickly and on-target against the top-ranked Seahawks defense.

In the end, this is truly a toss-up, but I'll give the edge to New England, behind Brady being quick and accurate in the passing game, the defense forcing turnovers against a one-dimensional Seattle offense, and special teams potentially making a big impact.

My prediction: