1. Indianapolis Colts
2013 Record: 11-5
Projected 2014 Record: 10-6
Projected 2014 Record: 10-6
The Offense
The Colts won 11 games for the second straight year last season, won the AFC South for the first time since 2010, and advanced to the divisional playoff round behind an epic comeback against the Chiefs in the wildcard round.
As incredible QB Andrew Luck was in that playoff win, the Colts' offense was extremely average last year, ranking 17th in passing and 20th in rushing.
Indy does get veteran WR Reggie Wayne back this year, after he played just 7 games a year ago before tearing his ACL. In Wayne's absence, WR T.Y. Hilton emerged as a go-to weapon down the field for Luck, as he finished 19th among all AFC wide receivers in receiving yards, although he still needs to improve his play away from home. In addition, tight end Coby Fleener also is a solid pass catcher. Finally, the Colts added veteran WR Hakeem Nicks from the Giants, who will look to bounce back after two straight disappointing seasons in the Meadowlands.
Indianapolis will once again try to get more production out of its running game this year, as it ranked just 20th last year. Leading rusher Donald Brown was let go in free agency, so it will be up to third-year RB Trent Richardson to regain his rookie-year form, as behind him is only injury-prone veteran Ahmad Bradshaw.
The Colts won 11 games for the second straight year last season, won the AFC South for the first time since 2010, and advanced to the divisional playoff round behind an epic comeback against the Chiefs in the wildcard round.
As incredible QB Andrew Luck was in that playoff win, the Colts' offense was extremely average last year, ranking 17th in passing and 20th in rushing.
Indy does get veteran WR Reggie Wayne back this year, after he played just 7 games a year ago before tearing his ACL. In Wayne's absence, WR T.Y. Hilton emerged as a go-to weapon down the field for Luck, as he finished 19th among all AFC wide receivers in receiving yards, although he still needs to improve his play away from home. In addition, tight end Coby Fleener also is a solid pass catcher. Finally, the Colts added veteran WR Hakeem Nicks from the Giants, who will look to bounce back after two straight disappointing seasons in the Meadowlands.
Indianapolis will once again try to get more production out of its running game this year, as it ranked just 20th last year. Leading rusher Donald Brown was let go in free agency, so it will be up to third-year RB Trent Richardson to regain his rookie-year form, as behind him is only injury-prone veteran Ahmad Bradshaw.
In the trenches, the Colts' offensive line was again fairly bad last year, as they were ineffective in run blocking and porous in pass protection. RT Gosder Cherilus was the team's best rated lineman last year, and Indy hopes he and LT Anthony Costanzo will be able to keep Luck upright this year in the passing game, while the running game looks to improve, as the team decided to replace their worst rated lineman in RG Mike McGlynn.
The Defense
Indy's defense improved slightly last year but still was nowhere close to being good, as the finished ranked 20th in yards allowed.
Indy's defense improved slightly last year but still was nowhere close to being good, as the finished ranked 20th in yards allowed.
The rush defense was especially bad (a trait shared by all four teams in this division), as the Colts finished 26th in that department. To address this need, they brought in two free agents in their front 7, in DE Arthur Jones and LB D'Qwell Jackson, who should only help.
Meanwhile, Indy's pass rush was decent last year, as they finished 11th in the league in sacks, but they will lose star DE Robert Mathis (and his 19.5 sacks in 2013) for the first month of the season due to a PED-suspension. In the meantime, veteran DE Cory Redding, and linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner to have to step up to fill the void.
Meanwhile, Indy's pass rush was decent last year, as they finished 11th in the league in sacks, but they will lose star DE Robert Mathis (and his 19.5 sacks in 2013) for the first month of the season due to a PED-suspension. In the meantime, veteran DE Cory Redding, and linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner to have to step up to fill the void.
The secondary, which is probably the strength of this defense, is led by Pro Bowl safety Antoine Bethea, CB Vontae Davis, and FS LaRon Landry. As a group, they ranked 13th in the league in passing yards last year.
The Key
The play of the offensive line. If the Colts are going to take the next step to become a real AFC contender, they have to keep their franchise quarterback upright, while also opening up running lanes for Richardson/Bradshaw in the backfield.
2. Tennessee Titans
2013 Record: 7-9
Projected 2014 Record: 8-8
The Offense
The Titans offense improved slightly last year, but still was no good, finishing 22nd overall in yards, as the team improved its win total by one game, finishing 7-9.
Projected 2014 Record: 8-8
The Offense
The Titans offense improved slightly last year, but still was no good, finishing 22nd overall in yards, as the team improved its win total by one game, finishing 7-9.
It's year four and make-or-break for QB Jake Locker. Although he was decent in his 7 games last year, throwing for 1256 yards, with 8 TD and 4 INT, he once again sustained a season-ending injury. In order for him to show the Titans that he has the durability and consistency to be a quality NFL QB, he has to stay on the field this year for them, as he is in a contract year, and the Titans drafted ex-LSU QB Zach Mettenberger. A healthy Locker and continued improvement from WR's Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, as well as new additions in rookie RB Bishop Sankey (who will join RB Shonn Greene in the backfield in replacing Chris Johnson) and WR/KR Dexter McCluster should help the Titans improve their passing rank of 21st a year ago. In the trenches, Tennessee's line was average last year and has to improve its pass-blocking, which ranked just 26th in the league. While the left-side of the line is strong, with LT Michael Roos and LG Andy LeVitre, the right side has to improve greatly, especially RG Chance Warmack, who struggled mightily in his rookie year last season.
The Defense
Tennessee’s defense improved greatly last year, finishing 14th in the league. Ranked 20th against stopping the run, the front-seven looks to be improve under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton's 3-4 scheme. The defensive line of DT Jurrell Casey, Sammie Hill and Ropati Pitoitua must adjust quickly in the new scheme to improve their rush defense this year. In the linebacking core, the Titans added ex-Bronco Wesley Woodyard at MLB to a unit that includes veterans Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley. The secondary, which was the strength of the team a year ago, as Tennessee finished 11th in pass defense will have to replace stud cornerback Alterraun Verner with unprovens in Blidi Wreh-Wilson or Coty Sensabaugh. Veteran safeties Michael Griffin and Bernard Pollard, as well #1 CB Jason McCourty should help that transition, though.
Tennessee’s defense improved greatly last year, finishing 14th in the league. Ranked 20th against stopping the run, the front-seven looks to be improve under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton's 3-4 scheme. The defensive line of DT Jurrell Casey, Sammie Hill and Ropati Pitoitua must adjust quickly in the new scheme to improve their rush defense this year. In the linebacking core, the Titans added ex-Bronco Wesley Woodyard at MLB to a unit that includes veterans Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley. The secondary, which was the strength of the team a year ago, as Tennessee finished 11th in pass defense will have to replace stud cornerback Alterraun Verner with unprovens in Blidi Wreh-Wilson or Coty Sensabaugh. Veteran safeties Michael Griffin and Bernard Pollard, as well #1 CB Jason McCourty should help that transition, though.
The Key
Jake Locker. In a contract year with a new coach, Locker and Tennessee's passing game will determine whether the Titans can contend for a winning record or yet another losing one.
Jake Locker. In a contract year with a new coach, Locker and Tennessee's passing game will determine whether the Titans can contend for a winning record or yet another losing one.
3. Houston Texans
2013 Record: 2-14
Projected 2014 Record: 7-9
The Offense
The Texans' offense was absolutely atrocious last year and the reason the primary reason they had the worst record in the league at 2-14. Although the team ranked a respectable 11th in the league in yardage, including 15th in passing, they were dead last in turnover differential, due to horrendous play from QB Matt Schaub, who set an NFL-record by throwing a pick-six in four straight games.
2013 Record: 2-14
Projected 2014 Record: 7-9
The Offense
The Texans' offense was absolutely atrocious last year and the reason the primary reason they had the worst record in the league at 2-14. Although the team ranked a respectable 11th in the league in yardage, including 15th in passing, they were dead last in turnover differential, due to horrendous play from QB Matt Schaub, who set an NFL-record by throwing a pick-six in four straight games.
Schaub was thankfully traded away in the offseason, and new head coach Bill O'Brien has named mediocre veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the opening day starter. Behind him, the Texans drafted a project QB in Tom Savage and also traded for Ryan Mallett, O'Brien's former backup QB in New England. By law of averages, the Texans' QB play has nowhere to go but up after last year's fiasco, and Houston hopes Fitzpatrick can be serviceable in being a game manager this year and get the ball out to Houston's many playmaking pass catchers, in veteran WR Andre Johnson, 2nd year WR DeAndre Hopkins, and TE Garrett Graham.
The Texans lost RB Arian Foster for much of last season due to injury, and their running game suffered, as they ranked 20th in the league in yardage. Houston hopes to have him return to his 2012-form this year. Behind him is rookie Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes, who lack the NFL experience that Ben Tate (now with Cleveland) had a year ago.
In the offensive line, the Texans were middle of the pack a season ago, and hope that second round pick Xavier Su'a-Filo can step in at LG, while Brandon Brooks can continue to improve at RG, next to the awful Derek Newton at RT. Veterans Duane Brown at LT and Chris Myers at C round out the line, which needs to be better in opening gaps up in the running game.
The Defense
Houston's defense was a respectable 7th in the yards allowed, but that was partially due to plenty of short fields due to turnovers by the offense, not the fact that they were a top-10 quality defense.
Houston's defense was a respectable 7th in the yards allowed, but that was partially due to plenty of short fields due to turnovers by the offense, not the fact that they were a top-10 quality defense.
#1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney has already shown flashes of greatness in preseason and should pair nicely with DE JJ Watt in helping improve a team which was 29th in sacks a year ago. What may be a bigger question mark is whether a rebuilt line of NT Jerrell Powe and DE Jared Crick will be able to hold up against opposing rushing offenses, as the Texans were 23rd in the league in stopping the run a year ago.
The linebacking core, which was bad, even before leader Brian Cushing went down with another season ending injury a year ago, includes Clowney, Cushing, as well as veteran Brooks Reed (who has regressed greatly the last two years), and ex-Patriot Jeff Tarpinian.
The Texans gave up the 7th most passing touchdowns in the NFL last year, as its secondary was not very good. While veteran CB Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson should be okay, the safety play is a gigantic question mark. Kendrick Lewis steps in at FS after being cut by the Chiefs, while SS D.J. Swearinger was awful in all aspects of the game except trash talking a year ago.
The Key
Quarterback play. The Texans are attempting to be the 3rd consecutive team to go from #1 pick to playoffs the next year, and in order to have a chance, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Ryan Mallett/Tom Savage have to be competent and not self-destructive like Mr. Schaub did a year ago.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Record: 4-12
Projected 2014 Record: 4-12
The Offense
Jacksonville was once again one of the worst offenses in the league a year ago, finishing ranked 31st in total yards.
It always starts at QB and the Jags drafted their future franchise QB in taking Blake Bortles with the #3 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Although he will start the season as the backup to Chad Henne (who was decent in taking over for bust Blaine Gabbert last year), the sooner Bortles starts taking snaps for Jacksonville, the sooner the Jags will be closer to contending again. As far as receivers, Jacksonville took Marquise Lee from USC in the second round, and they are hopeful he and Cecil Shorts, who had a good 2013, can form a nice duo at WR.
As bad as the passing game was, the running game was even worse a season ago. Veteran RB Maurice Jones-Drew is gone, so Jacksonville is hoping that Toby Gerhart, Adrian Peterson's backup in Minnesota the past few seasons, can grow into a starting-quality RB in the NFL. But most of all, the Jacksonville offensive line will hold the key to the Jaguars' success (or lack of) this year. Arguably the worst 5-man unit in pro football a year ago, the Jaguars hope that second-year LT Luke Joeckel, who was hurt for almost all of 2013, and free agent LG Zane Beadles can improve a unit that is going through an entire overhaul from a year ago.
The Defense
Jacksonville's defense was its usual pathetic self a year ago, finishing 27th overall.
In order to improve a pass rush that ranked 31st in sacks and a porous rush defense that was 29th in the league, the Jags imported two ex-Seahawks in DE's Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, who will line up next to DT's Roy Miller and Sen'Derrick Marks. In the linebacking core, Paul Posluszny and his team-high 162 tackles return, along with OLB Geno Hayes and LaRoy Reynolds. In the secondary, the Jaguars return three starters from the 25th ranked pass defense, in SS Jonathan Cyprien, CB Alan Ball and CB Dwayne Gratz.
The Key
The play of the offensive line. The Jags were historically inept last year and has to take steps to become even average, as they pass the baton to Bortles in the future.
The play of the offensive line. The Jags were historically inept last year and has to take steps to become even average, as they pass the baton to Bortles in the future.
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