Point Guards: Tony Parker vs. Mario Chalmers
Parker has been the Spurs' leading scorer this postseason, but left San Antonio's clincher in OKC with an ankle injury. He is absolutely the key for the Spurs in this series and has to be effective for them to avenge last year's Finals loss. If he can knock down midrange jumpers, get into the paint with his patented tear drop, and find open shots for his teammates, Parker's constant movement can cause a matchup nightmare for the Heat. It'll be interesting to see if Miami coach Eric Spoulstra puts LeBron James on Parker again, which was quite effective last year. Meanwhile, Chalmers has had a relatively quiet postseason, as Spousltra has gone with backup Norris Cole at times when Chalmers has been ineffective. Anything he gives Miami offensively is gravy and only takes some of the enormous scoring pressure off James and Dwayne Wade. If he can force Parker (and his bad ankle) to play both ways this series, it will be a big bonus for the Heat.
Edge: Spurs
Shooting Guards: Danny Green vs. Dwayne Wade
Despite setting an NBA Finals record for made three-pointers a year ago, Danny Green still has stretches of inconsistency that has relegated him to the bench at times this year. His home/road three-point splits are mind-bogglingly tilted, and Spurs' fans have to be glad that they have home court advantage this year. However, his defensive play might be even more important than his shooting. He played solid D on MVP Kevin Durant in the West Finals, and he'll have to do it again in this series against a re-energized Dwayne Wade. Wade seems to be pretty healthy and has averaged nearly 19 ppg this postseason, much higher than a year ago. If he continues to attack the rim in this series and shoot higher than 50%, I think he can thoroughly outplay Green.
Edge: Heat
Small Forwards: Kawhi Leonard vs. LeBron James
Leonard didn't take the enormous leap (offensively) like many thought he would after an outstanding NBA Finals last year, but was named to the NBA All-Defensive second team behind career highs in rebounding, steals, and blocks. His defense will be key in this series, with the 4-time MVP on the other end of the floor. The King didn't win the MVP this season, but he has been on a mission for his three-peat, as he has been scary efficient this postseason, averaging 27 points in just 38 minutes per game. He should get a good test against the more experienced Leonard and a master schemer in head coach Gregg Popovich, who dared James to beat them with outside jump shots in last year's Finals. To his credit, LeBron took what San Antonio gave him and knocked them down when they counted, so look for the Spurs to try something different this year, in what should be an intriguing chess match between two all-time greats.
Significant Edge: Heat
Power Forwards: Matt Bonner vs. Rashard Lewis
I really don't know if either Bonner or Lewis will start, come off the bench, or even play it all in this series. Despite limited playing time from each during the regular season, they were thrown in the starting five in their respective conference finals, whether out of necessity due to injury (to Miami's Chris Andersen) or strategy (to pull OKC's Serge Ibaka away from basket). If they do continue to start in the Finals, expect both players to simply be spot-up shooters who have a chance to make an impact on the series if they can suddenly get hot from the field.
Edge: Heat
Centers: Tim Duncan vs. Chris Bosh
The 38-year old Big Fundamental had another solid regular season consisting of Popovich limiting his minutes, allowing him to save his energy for the playoffs, where he has been his typical solid self. Against OKC in the West Finals, he outplayed the likes of Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams on the post and carried San Antonio in OT of its Game 6 clincher. Now, he'll have a second shot at his 5th championship after carrying the Spurs oh-so-close a year ago, averaging a team high 18.9 ppg and 12.1 rpg in the Finals. Meanwhile, on the other side, there is the enigma that is Chris Bosh, who is coming off a series in which he was putrid for the first three games and great in the last three games. Once a dominant post player, Bosh is now strictly a jump shooter and a very streaky one. His effectiveness in grabbing rebounds and hitting jump shots is a must for the Heat to get some production out of their big men.
Edge: Spurs
Bench: Manu Ginobili/Boris Diaw/Patty Mills/Tiago Splitter/Marco Belinelli vs. Ray Allen/Norris Cole/Shane Battier/Chris Andersen/Udonis Haslem
The biggest difference between the two teams from a year ago is their bench. I think the Spurs' bench has gotten better, while the Heat's is weaker.
Manu Ginobili has had a much better postseason than a year ago, and is the catalyst for the Spurs' offense off the bench with his ability to attack the rim, as well as find teammates with incredible passes. Boris Diaw is coming off a great series against OKC in which he was a matchup nightmare who the Thunder could not contain (and was arguably, the team MVP). His ability to post-up and rebound, while also being able to shoot threes and make pin-point passes gives something Miami cannot match off its bench. Tiago Splitter (if he doesn't start) will be important in protecting the rim against the likes of James and Wade when Duncan goes to the bench. Finally, the streaky Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli can have a big impact on the series if they can knock down open three's.
For Miami, while Ray Allen has been as clutch as ever in hitting timely three pointers and helping Miami space the floor around Wade and James. Chris Andersen (if healthy) gives Miami tremendous defense, energy, and finishing around the rim. Backup PG Norris Cole has been consistent this postseason, shooting 44% from the field. Finally, Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem provide defense and toughness and the occasional jump shot, and could see extended minutes in this series against the Spurs' well-oiled offensive machine.
Edge: Spurs
My prediction:
After an epic series last year that saw the Heat prevail, I predict another long 7-game series this year between two nearly evenly matched teams. The difference this year is the Spurs' better depth, including a more experienced Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Remember, San Antonio was a Ray Allen-miracle three away from winning it all last year, and the Heat's supporting cast is not as strong. In the end, despite a superhuman series from LeBron James in his effort to three-peat, I'm picking the Spurs to win fifth title with Timmy and Pop.
In 7.
Last round’s record: 2-0
Playoff record: 9-5
No comments:
Post a Comment