1. Houston Texans
2012 Record: 12-4
Projected 2013 Record: 11-5
The Offense
The Texans' offense was one of the strongest in the league last year, finishing 7th overall in yards. The core of the attack returns, but injury concerns have already caused one fan (me) to be nervous for the season.
2012 Record: 12-4
Projected 2013 Record: 11-5
The Offense
The Texans' offense was one of the strongest in the league last year, finishing 7th overall in yards. The core of the attack returns, but injury concerns have already caused one fan (me) to be nervous for the season.
Although QB Matt Schaub is an above-average, accurate NFL quarterback, he was exposed last year in the playoffs, as he simply did not step up when his team needed him the most. In order for this team to make true on its "Super Bowl or bust" goal, Schaub has to pull a 2012 Flacco and raise his game when the lights are the brightest in December and January.
The running game, ranked 8th last year, should get a boost from backup RB Ben Tate, who was injured for much of 2012, returning to full strength. His effectiveness will help spell Pro Bowl running Arian Foster, who had a heavy workload last season, and is already banged up to start the year.
In the receiving core, the Texans finally addressed the wide receiver position, drafting DeAndre Hopkins in the first round to pair with All-Pro Andre Johnson. Assuming Hopkins returns from his concussion suffered in preseason, he should give Schaub another downfield target aside Johnson, along with tight ends Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham.
In the offensive line, the Texans hope that Pro Bowl LG Wade Smith returns from knee scope and preseason and joins a strong line which includes two other Pro Bowlers in LT Duane Brown and C Chris Myers. Second year RG Brandon Brooks, and third year RT Derek Newton will hope to solidify the right side of the line, which struggled at times last season.
The Defense
Houston's defense was still among the league's best for much of the year last year, as Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt led a unit ranked 7th in overall defense.
Houston's defense was still among the league's best for much of the year last year, as Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt led a unit ranked 7th in overall defense.
Watt had one of the best seasons for a DE in NFL history, as he finished 9th in the league in passes defensed (as a DE!) and finished with an NFL-high 20.5 sacks. He, along with Earl Mitchell and Antonio Smith make up one of the better defensive lines in the league.
The linebacking core, which really struggled down the stretch last year, should get a boost with the return of ILB Brian Cushing and the addition of ILB Joe Mays. OLB Connor Barwin left in free agency, but 2012 first-round pick Whitney Mercilus should fill the void as the pass-rusher on the other side of OLB Brooks Reed.
The biggest concern for the defense, however, is the secondary. Houston finished just 16th in pass defense last year, and the secondary was lit up by Tom Brady (twice) and Aaron Rodgers in primetime humiliations that exposed the deficiencies of the team. FS Ed Reed was brought in fresh off a Super Bowl win, but has yet to play due to a hip injury, so it will may be up to rookie D.J. Swearinger and Shiloh Keo to fill the void. Meanwhile, because of the man-to-man scheme Wade Phillips runs, nickel corners Brice McCain and Brandon Harris have to improve their downfield coverage to avoid getting burned time and time again.
The Key
As apparent as the concerns with Schaub and passing game are, I'm going to go with the secondary. The Texans' downfall after their 11-1 start to the season was due to their horrible pass defense in December and January, and it must improve if the Texans hope to beat out Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady to make their way out of the AFC.
2. Indianapolis Colts
2012 Record: 11-5
Projected 2013 Record: 10-6
Projected 2013 Record: 10-6
The Offense
The Andrew Luck era began with a bang last season, as the Colts made one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history, going from 2-14 to 11-5 and the playoffs in one year.
The change started with the drafting of QB Andrew Luck, who was outstanding in his rookie year, leading the Colts to numerous fourth quarter comebacks, as Indy was 10th in the league in total offense, and 7th in passing.
Returning downfield targets for Luck this year will be veteran WR Reggie Wayne, emerging star WR T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. In addition, the Colts added former first round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey in free agency.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis will try to get more production out of its running game this year, as it ranked just 22nd last year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw was signed from the Giants in free agency to be the new starter and should get the majority of the carries, but Vick Ballard or Donald Brown should also see carries, especially if Bradshaw's preseason foot injury lingers into the season.
The Andrew Luck era began with a bang last season, as the Colts made one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history, going from 2-14 to 11-5 and the playoffs in one year.
The change started with the drafting of QB Andrew Luck, who was outstanding in his rookie year, leading the Colts to numerous fourth quarter comebacks, as Indy was 10th in the league in total offense, and 7th in passing.
Returning downfield targets for Luck this year will be veteran WR Reggie Wayne, emerging star WR T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. In addition, the Colts added former first round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey in free agency.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis will try to get more production out of its running game this year, as it ranked just 22nd last year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw was signed from the Giants in free agency to be the new starter and should get the majority of the carries, but Vick Ballard or Donald Brown should also see carries, especially if Bradshaw's preseason foot injury lingers into the season.
In the trenches, the Colts' offensive line was very mediocre last year, as they were ineffective in run blocking and porous in pass protection. They added LG Donald Thomas and RT Gosder Cherilus in the offseason, but preseason injuries to RG Mike McGlynn and LT Anthony Costanzo will test the depth of a unit that was not very good at protecting its franchise player last year, as Andrew Luck was sacked 41 times.
The Defense
Indy's defense did not make the leap its offense did, as it finished 26th in the league in yards allowed.
For a team that finished 23rd in the league in sacks a year ago, the Colts will now line up for the first time in a decade without legend pass rusher Dwight Freeney, who is now in San Diego. As a result, Indy will have to depend on veteran OLB Robert Mathis, as well as rookie Bjorn Werner and free agent (overpaid?) veteran Erik Walden to provide the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Along the defensive line, Aubrayo Franklin and Ricky Jean-Francois were signed to hopefully bolster a rush defense that finished 29th in the league last year.
In the linebacking core, the Colts found a pleasant surprise last year, as ILB Jerrell Freeman (signed from CFL) was outstanding, finishing 5th in the league with 145 tackles, and pairing well with Pat Angerer.
The secondary, which is probably the strength of this defense, is led by Pro Bowl safety Antoine Bethea and CB Vontae Davis, as well as free agent signee LaRon Landry, who should fit right in at safety alongside Bethea.
Indy's defense did not make the leap its offense did, as it finished 26th in the league in yards allowed.
For a team that finished 23rd in the league in sacks a year ago, the Colts will now line up for the first time in a decade without legend pass rusher Dwight Freeney, who is now in San Diego. As a result, Indy will have to depend on veteran OLB Robert Mathis, as well as rookie Bjorn Werner and free agent (overpaid?) veteran Erik Walden to provide the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Along the defensive line, Aubrayo Franklin and Ricky Jean-Francois were signed to hopefully bolster a rush defense that finished 29th in the league last year.
In the linebacking core, the Colts found a pleasant surprise last year, as ILB Jerrell Freeman (signed from CFL) was outstanding, finishing 5th in the league with 145 tackles, and pairing well with Pat Angerer.
The secondary, which is probably the strength of this defense, is led by Pro Bowl safety Antoine Bethea and CB Vontae Davis, as well as free agent signee LaRon Landry, who should fit right in at safety alongside Bethea.
The Key
The play of the offensive line. A unit which really struggled last year already has injury concerns, and they have to do better in protecting the new franchise quarterback, as well as open up running lanes for Bradshaw and Ballard.
3. Tennessee Titans
2012 Record: 6-10
Projected 2013 Record: 7-9
The Offense
The Titans offense was one of the worst in the NFL again last season, finishing 26th overall in yards, leading the team to regress from 9-7 to 6-10.
The biggest problem with the offense last year was the offensive line, which was one of the worst lines in the league, especially at run blocking. This offseason, Tennessee addressed its line, signing free agents LG Andy LeVitre and C Rob Turner, and drafting RG Chance Warmack with its first round pick. With the upgrades up front, the Titans hope to get RB Chris Johnson back to his rushing dominance pre-2011.
Projected 2013 Record: 7-9
The Offense
The Titans offense was one of the worst in the NFL again last season, finishing 26th overall in yards, leading the team to regress from 9-7 to 6-10.
The biggest problem with the offense last year was the offensive line, which was one of the worst lines in the league, especially at run blocking. This offseason, Tennessee addressed its line, signing free agents LG Andy LeVitre and C Rob Turner, and drafting RG Chance Warmack with its first round pick. With the upgrades up front, the Titans hope to get RB Chris Johnson back to his rushing dominance pre-2011.
At the quarterback position, the Titans hope that Jake Locker can stay healthy and prove that he can be an NFL-caliber starting QB. Limited to just 10 games last year due to a shoulder injury, Locker was average, just completing 53% of his passes and throwing more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10). Down the field, Locker has fairly good targets, with WR Kenny Britt, if he can stay healthy in his contract year, veteran WR Nate Washington, sophomore Kendall Wright and ex-49er TE Delanie Walker.
The Defense
Tennessee’s defense was even worse than 2011, ranking 27th in the league. Equally putrid against the pass and the run, Tennessee went out and signed a bonanza of free agents, including former Raven SS Bernard Pollard, MLB Moise Fokou, DT Sammie Hill, and DE Ropati Pitotui. In addition, the Titans named ex-Bountygate coordinator Gregg Williams as its new defensive coordinator, who will try to mesh together the pieces of a defense which has some good individual players in OLB Akeem Ayers, DT Jurell Casey, and DE Derrick Morgan.
Tennessee’s defense was even worse than 2011, ranking 27th in the league. Equally putrid against the pass and the run, Tennessee went out and signed a bonanza of free agents, including former Raven SS Bernard Pollard, MLB Moise Fokou, DT Sammie Hill, and DE Ropati Pitotui. In addition, the Titans named ex-Bountygate coordinator Gregg Williams as its new defensive coordinator, who will try to mesh together the pieces of a defense which has some good individual players in OLB Akeem Ayers, DT Jurell Casey, and DE Derrick Morgan.
The Key
The defense under Gregg Williams. With the offensive line solidified and with a stable of outstanding skill players, Locker should be fine. But the defense (especially the secondary) will determine whether or not head coach Mike Munchak is looking for a new job at the end of the year.
The defense under Gregg Williams. With the offensive line solidified and with a stable of outstanding skill players, Locker should be fine. But the defense (especially the secondary) will determine whether or not head coach Mike Munchak is looking for a new job at the end of the year.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2012 Record: 2-14
Projected 2013 Record: 4-12
The Offense
Jacksonville finished 29th in the league in total yards last year, and hope that new head coach Gus Bradley (who turned around Seattle's offense in just one year) can work his magic down in North Florida with the Jags.
Former Pro-Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew looks to return after suffering a Lisfranc injury in 2012 and along with new addition, Justin Forsett, bolster a rushing attack that finished an awful 30th in the league last year.
Like the Titans, Jacksonville is hoping year three is the charm with its QB. Blaine Gabbert improved slightly last year, increasing his completion percentage from 50 to 58%, but threw just 9 TD's in 10 games before being sidelined with forearm and shoulder injuries for the final six games. In the receiving core, the Jaguars got a promising rookie season from WR Justin Blackmon, although he will miss the first four games of the season after being suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Jags also have TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Cecil Shorts, who Jacksonville hopes will blossom into a star in his third year in the league.
The mediocre offense line from a year ago got a boost this offseason with the drafting of former Texas A&M star Luke Joeckel, who will play RT. However, the unit still has to improve its pass protection to give Gabbert time in the pocket.
The Defense
As bad as the offense was, the Jacksonville defense was even worse, at is regressed from being ranked 6th in the league to 30th. Jaguars' fans (the few that there are) hope that new head coach Gus Bradley (who turned around Seattle's defense in just one year) can work his magic down in North Florida with this unit.
In addition to being horrible against the run, Jacksonville ranked last in the league in sacks, finishing with just 20 on the year in 2012. As a result, the Jaguars went out and signed a new DT tandem up front, bringing in Sen'Derrick Marks from the Titans and Roy Miller from the Buccaneers. As a result DT Tyson Alualu will move outside and pair with veteran DE Jason Babin, who was solid after coming over from the Eagles mid-season in 2012. In the linebacking core, Paul Posluszny and his team-high 139 tackles return, along with OLB Geno Hayes and Russell Allen. In the secondary, the Jaguars have completely retooled, as second round pick SS Jonathan Cyprien will pair with veteran FS Dwight Lowery, as well as CB Alan Ball and Dwayne Gratz to try to shore up a pass defense that was ranked 22nd a year ago.
The Key
Has to be the defense. Bradley was brought in from Seattle for a reason, and that was to turn around a defense, and a franchise that was once one of the best in the AFC, but has fallen on hard times recently. There certainly will be growing pains in year #1, but after a 2-14 year, any glimpses of hope will be glad to see in Jacksonville.
Has to be the defense. Bradley was brought in from Seattle for a reason, and that was to turn around a defense, and a franchise that was once one of the best in the AFC, but has fallen on hard times recently. There certainly will be growing pains in year #1, but after a 2-14 year, any glimpses of hope will be glad to see in Jacksonville.
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