Point Guards: Tony Parker vs. Mario Chalmers
It's been 6 years since Tony Parker was MVP of the 2007 NBA Finals, and now 31, he is the unquestioned leader of this new up-tempo Spurs attack. Whether it's knocking down midrange jumpers, getting into the paint with his patented tear drop, or getting open shots for his teammates, Parker's constant movement will cause a matchup nightmare for the Heat. Meanwhile, Chalmers has provided some much nice scoring this postseason, as he averaged over 11 ppg against the Pacers in the East Finals. His scoring runs have often helped the Heat build on a lead, and taken some pressure off LeBron James. He needs to continue to do that this series, and force Parker to play both ways this series in order for the Heat to come out as champs again.
Edge: Spurs
Shooting Guards: Danny Green vs. Dwayne Wade
Danny Green has emerged into one of the best three point shooters in the league, as he finished 7th in the league in three-point percentage. In addition, Green is an outstanding long defender who poses problems for smaller guards. He frustrated Stephen Curry in their series against the Warriors, and he'll play a huge role in this series by having to shut down Dwayne Wade. Wade is clearly not 100% with his knee, as he has averaged only 14.1 points per game this postseason, well below his career average. However, he must continue to stay aggressive and get to the free throw line in order to take some pressure off of LeBron James. Miami is a completely different team if Wade feels involved and is constantly attacking the rim. However, I think he might continue his struggles this series, especially given his health, lack of confidence, and Green's defensive prowess.
Edge: Heat
Small Forwards: Kawhi Leonard vs. LeBron James
Leonard has developed into an outstanding NBA player in his second season. In addition to his rebounding and outstanding defense, he has turned into an above average scorer for the Spurs as well, whether taking it inside the paint or hitting the corner three-pointer. Obviously, his hands will be full this series with the 4-time MVP on the other end of the floor, but Leonard needs to also stay confident and relevant offensively, especially if Manu Ginobili continues to struggle, and be prepared to hit big shots if left open. Meanwhile, the King, who single-handedly carried the Heat through their series with the Pacers, will have revenge on his mind against the team that he lost to back in the 2007 NBA Finals. He has a significant strength advantage against the slender Leonard, so logic should dictate that James may feature heavily in the post, as he did last year against the Thunder. However, the Heat have not called post-ups for LeBron consistently all postseason (other than Game 3 @Indy), so we shall see where LeBron attacks from this year. Wherever it is, be certain that the Spurs defense will have the right scheme to try to stop him. Whether or not they do, of course, is another story.
Significant Edge: Heat
Power Forwards: Tim Duncan vs. Udonis Haslem
The ageless wonder that is Tim Duncan returned to the All-NBA First Team this year, averaging an incredible 17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and 2.7 blocks per game at age 37. What he has done with his body over the last couple years, when he looked a shell of his former self, has been nothing true of remarkable. Now, going for his fifth NBA championship, he will once again have to carry a big load for the Spurs to be victorious. Whether it is scoring in the post (I think he is the only true back-to-basket post player in the series), setting solid screens and scoring on rolls to the basket, hitting outside jumpers, or being the lone paint protector against the drives of Wade and James, Duncan's fingerprints will be all over this series. Meanwhile, for Miami, Haslem has been clutch whenever he gets enough minutes this postseason. His 8 for 9 shooting performances in Games 3 and 5 of the East Finals really provided a spark for the Miami offense against the great defensive of the Pacers. His role this series will probably be the same, as the Spurs are a very well-coached defensive unit which will want to protect the paint, which may give Haslem more opportunities from that baseline.
Edge: Spurs
Centers: Tiago Splitter vs. Chris Bosh
Splitter has been solid this postseason, setting solid screens, finishing around the rim, and playing good defense. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh is coming off an awful series against the lengthy Pacers. Once a dominant post player, Miami has turned Bosh into a jump shooter, which works effectively when he's hitting his shot. But with him shooting just 31% his last five games and rarely crashing the boards to grab rebounds, Bosh has turned into a gigantic liability on the floor. The good news about this series is that he won't get worn down on the defensive end, as Splitter is not the offensive threat (or height) of Roy Hibbert, who probably is still haunting Bosh in his nightmares.
Edge: Heat
Bench: Manu Ginobili/Boris Diaw/Matt Bonner/Gary Neal vs. Ray Allen/Norris Cole/Shane Battier/Mike Miller/Chris Andersen
Both teams are pretty deep and have a lot of role players that could have gigantic impacts on this series, even if they are only out there for short spells. For San Antonio, injury-plagued swingman Manu Ginobili has struggled with his shot and is just shooting 38% for the playoffs. Spurs fans are hoping that the 10 days off between series will help him regain some of the Sixth-Man of the Year form that they need from him in order to beat the Heat. Also key off the Spurs bench are the versatile Boris Diaw, who can play all five positions, Matt Bonner, who can light up the scoreboard from behind the three-point line (as he did against Memphis), and Gary Neal, who will have to effectively run the offense while Tony Parker is resting on the bench.
For Miami, their bench has been extremely inconsistent this postseason. While Chris "Birdman" Andersen has been a revelation with his defense, energy, and finishing around the rim, the rest of the bench has struggled. A lot of that results from coach Eric Spoulstra's constant tinkering with lineups and rotations, which prevents the role players on the Heat bench from getting a rhythm. Ray Allen has been cold behind the arc for most of the playoffs but heated up in Game 7 against the Pacers. The NBA all-time leader in three-pointers made, Allen's consistency from behind the arc will go a long way in preventing the Spurs from packing in the paint. The shooting of Allen, Norris Cole, who has been good in stretches this postseason, Shane Battier, who has been ice-cold, and Mike Miller, who has sat on the bench for most of this postseason, is the dimension of Miami's attack that helped them win 27 games in a row in the regular season and helps them reach a gear that no other team can match.
Edge: Spurs
My prediction:
Unlike the two Conference Finals, which were slow-paced, defensive slugfests, this series should be up-tempo and wide open. Each team is most effectively when they get out in transition and get easy baskets, resulting from the penetration of Tony Parker and LeBron James, and kicking out to the myriad of outstanding three-point shooters on both sides. In the end, though, just as the Thunder did to them last year, I think the Spurs, although better-coached or more balanced, will fall victim to a simply-more athletic team led by an unguardable superstar in his prime. Give me a long, epic series, but with Miami coming through for the second straight year.
Last round’s record: 1-1
Playoff record: 11-3
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