My 2012 AFC South Preview

1. Houston Texans
2011 Record: 10-6
Projected 2012 Record: 11-5
The Offense
It was almost comical the way the Texans went through quarterbacks last season, after losing starter Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinart on back-to-back weeks in the middle of the season. But thanks to the second-ranked rushing attack in the league, led by the duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, and a gritty performance down the stretch by rookie third-string QB T.J. Yates, the Texans were able to keep winning, eventually reaching the divisional playoffs before falling to the Ravens.

With Schaub back at the controls this year, the Texans passing rank of 18th a year ago should only improve. The wide receiving core is a bit of a question mark, though. Veteran All-Pro Andre Johnson has dealt with nagging injuries for the last year and a half, so the Texans will have to get contributions from young receivers like Lestar Jean (2nd year) and Keshawn Martin (rookie) to prevent defenses from loading up in the box on Foster and Tate out of the backfield.

In the offensive line, the Texans were able to keep center Chris Meyers and sign LT Duane Brown to a long-term contract, but have a new starter at right tackle, with second year lineman Derek Newton taking over for long-time starter Eric Winston, who was cut in March.

The Defense
The turnaround for the Texans' defense was simply remarkable last year. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips came in and turned around a defense that was among the worst in league history to one which finished third in NFL.

Despite losing Mario Williams to Buffalo, the Texans' pass rush should still be great, with first-round pick Whitney Mercilus joining breakout stars Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed from a season ago. Brian Cushing leads a group of able-tackling linebackers, while the secondary, which made the greatest stride a year ago, should be solid, led by veterans Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.

The Key
Health. The stage is set for a deep playoff (Super Bowl?) run for the Texans, with their dominant running game and defense, but can they stay healthy? Also, another key is the reemergence of the passing game. Jean, Martin, or rookie DeVier Posey providing an addition down field target for Schaub will help the offense become more balanced.

2. Tennessee Titans

2011 Record: 9-7
Projected 2012 Record: 7-9
The Offense
The Titans offense stalled right out of the gate last season, after star running back Chris Johnson’s prolonged hold-out and subsequent terrible season (Titans finished 31^st in rushing) in which it took him about 10 games to get into game shape.

With a full offseason and preseason, Johnson should have a bounce-back year, which will help out the passing game and the rest of the offense.

At the quarterback position, the Titans have named sophomore Jake Locker the starter, as they hope he becomes their next franchise quarterback. Locker will have the luxury of an offensive line which was excellent last year in pass protection, and also added veteran Steve Hutchinson to the fold. Locker has good targets down the field, too, as Kenny Britt, if he can stay healthy and away from off-field problems, is a legitimate #1 WR. Meanwhile, speedy first-round pick Kendall Wright and reliable veteran Nate Washington, who had a career year in 2011, are also great options for Locker in his first year starting fulltime.

The Defense
Tennessee’s defense was horrid again last season, ranking 24^th in the league. They were especially bad against the run and in generating a pass rush. As a result, they signed free agent DE Kamerion Wimbley (7 sacks with Raiders in 2011). In the linebacking core, the Titans hope to get continual growth and improvement from second year linebackers Akeem Ayers and Colin McCarthy. Meanwhile, in the secondary, the Titans lose Pro Bowler Cortland Finnegan, but still should be solid, with CB Jason McCourty emerging last season, along with ball-hawking safeties Michael Griffin and Jordan Babineaux.

The Key
Jake Locker. The Titans have handed him the reigns to be their franchise quarterback, and have given him the skill players he needs to succeed. How well he develops and deals with the pressure will determine whether Tennessee can contend this season. It would also help if the very young front seven on the defense grows and improves as well.

3. Indianapolis Colts

2011 Record: 2-14
Projected 2012 Record: 6-10

The Offense
The Andrew Luck era has begun, as the Colts hope that he has the potential to be just as good, or even better, as his predecessor.

The rest of the offense, like the quarterback, looks a lot different with the Colts going through a complete rebuild after last year’s 2-14 campaign.

Oft-injured RB Joseph Addai is gone, so the majority of the carries will now go to fourth-year pro Donald Brown, who looked good in the preseason and at the end of last year. Targets for Luck down the field include veteran WR Reggie Wayne, rookie wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill, as well as rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. (Yeah, there are a lot of rookies on this side of the ball).

In the trenches, the Colts only return one starter (LT Anthony Castonzo) from a year ago, when they were terrible in allowing 35 sacks. Free agent signings on the offensive line include center Samson Satele (from Oakland), who replaces longtime center Jeff Saturday, RG Mike McGlynn (from Cincinnati), and RT Winston Justice (from Philadelphia). They will have to come together quickly to protect Indy’s franchise quarterback, as well as open up running lanes for a team which was 30^th in total offense a year ago.

The Defense
New head coach Chuck Pagano and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky have a lot of work to do, turning around a unit which was ranked 25th in the league a year ago. Having switched to a 3-4, the Colts will now line up pass rushing monsters, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at outside linebacker, while playing veterans Cory Redding, Antonio Johnson, and Fili Moala up front.

One of the worst rushing defenses in the league for the last couple of seasons, the Colts hope that inside linebackers Kavell Conner (104 tackles in 2011) and Pat Angerer (when he returns from injury) lead a defense which lost veteran Gary Brackett. The secondary, which is probably the strength of this defense, is led by Pro Bowl safety Antoine Bethea and CB Jerraud Powers, as well as new acquisition Vontae Davis.
The Key

The play of the offensive line. A unit which really has been pieced together must come together and protect the new franchise quarterback, as well as open up running lanes for the speedy Brown.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 Record: 5-11
Projected 2012 Record: 5-11
The Offense
The worst offense in the NFL a season ago could not have started this year even worse than not having Pro-Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew (who helped the team finish a respectable 12^th in rushing) holding out. Although he finally reported this past weekend, if it takes time for him to get into game-shape (as it took Chris Johnson last year with Titans), the Jags’ 2012 hopes for improvement will be bleak.

Fair or not, QB Blaine Gabbert looked like a bust last year, as he completed just 50% of his passes, while throwing 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, as the Jaguars finished last in the league in passing. Lacking reliable targets down the field, the Jaguars drafted Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon in the first round, who they hope will become to the franchise wide receiver that Jacksonville has missed since Jimmy Smith. The Jags also added veteran Laurent Robinson to an average group which includes TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Mike Thomas.

The good run blocking offense line returns mainly intact, with RT Eben Britton the only new starter. However, the unit has to improve its pass protection to give Gabbert time in the pocket.

The Defense
As bad as the offense was, the Jacksonville defense was actually one of the top units in the league last year, finishing ranked 6^th in the league.

The defensive line is anchored by DE Jeremy Mincey, who led the team with 8 sacks in 2011, as well as veteran tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton, who are solid in clogging up the middle and stopping the run. Jacksonville also drafted DE Andre Branch in the second round of the draft to add pass rushing. In the linebacking core, Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith are a great duo, both in stopping the run and defending the pass. In the secondary, the Jaguars added CB Aaron Ross from the Giants to a solid group which includes CB Rashean Mathis and SS Dawan Landry.

The Key
The passing game. The Jaguars defense and running game (if Jones-Drew isn’t rusty) are good enough to keep them in playoff contention. However, if their awful passing game (starting with Blaine Gabbert) doesn’t take an enormous leap forward, the Jags will have no way of competing with their tough schedule.