2011 NBA Finals Preview: Mavericks vs. Heat

Time to party like it's 2006. Five years later, Dallas and Miami are each back in the NBA Finals, albeit with almost completely different teams. (Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki, and Dwayne Wade are only players still on respective '06 teams)

Point Guards: Jason Kidd vs. Mike Bibby

The amazing Jason Kidd has lost some of his quickness and athleticism since his last Finals' appearance in 2003, but he still has the play-making ability to set up his teammates in good positions to score. In addition, he has turned into a reliable, clutch three-point shooter, and an above average defender on the perimeter. Mike Bibby doesn't really play enough minutes to have a large impact on a game, but what he brings is decent outside shooting to keep defenses honest when collapsing on the slashing LeBron and D-Wade.
Edge: Mavericks

Shooting Guards: DeShawn Stevenson vs. Dwayne Wade

This isn't really a fair match-up since Stevenson plays very sparing minutes (only averaging 15.3 minutes per game in the playoffs). What he does bring is toughness to the back court of Dallas, as he is an above average defender who isn't afraid to get physical with opposing guards. While not a great outside shooter, Stevenson can attack the rim and score in the painted area. However, his worth will be trying to slow down Dwayne Wade, who has cooled off after a sizzling start in the playoffs but is still the most dangerous shooting guard in the league at the moment. When he is attacking the rim and getting to the foul-line, Wade is at his most dangerous, as it opens up his jump shot as well as his play-making ability. Stevenson must play solid defense when he is guarding Wade by keeping him from getting to the lane and from shooting free-throws, and by forcing him to shoot jump shots.
Significant Edge: Heat

Small Forwards: Shawn Marion vs. LeBron James

I really think the Matrix is the key to the whole series for Dallas. Marion played extremely well in the West Finals against OKC: playing excellent defense without fouling (frustrating Kevin Durant), being aggressive offensively (whether through post-ups, or attacking the rim off on the dribble drive), and rebounding effectively. In order for Big D to end up lifting the trophy, Marion plays a key role in contributing consistently offensively as well as playing solid defense on the hottest player in the league right now. That, of course, is the King himself. Despite how all of Cleveland and most of America (including me) has hate on LeBron for his "Decision", he is playing out of his mind right now. Single-handedly taking over games in crunch-time (including a superhuman performance in Game 5 @ Chicago), LeBron has rescued stagnant Miami offense possessions in the fourth quarter with incredible drives or shots, while also fueling the Heat's disciplined athletic defense through his ability to swat away shots at the rim and his strength to rebuild effectively. Not to mention the fact that he unstoppable in the open-court on fast-breaks.

Edge: Heat

Power Forwards: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Chris Bosh

Dirk is a man on a mission, and if you haven't seen him play in the playoffs this year, you have been missing out. Impossible to guard because of his large amount of different moves he can put on you, while possessing an incredible shooting touch as a 7-footer, Nowitzki has been sizzling and unstoppable as of late, averaging 28.4 ppg and 7.5 rpg this postseason. You can't guard him one-on-one, as OKC did, because he will torch you. If you double-team, as the Lakers did, he also possesses the basketball IQ and ability to pass out and find open shooters on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh, much maligned this season, finally seems to have found his niche in Miami's often stagnant offense, and played extremely well against the Bulls, going for 30+ twice in the five game series. Bosh's key in this series will be trying to guard Dirk in this series without fouling and putting an all-time great shooter at the foul-line for free points.

Edge: Mavericks

Centers: Tyson Chandler vs. Joel Anthony

Chandler has brought an inside presence and a level of toughness to Dallas that they have lacked before this season. An outstanding rebounder, good shot blocker, and a great alley-oop finisher, Chandler will play a major role in protecting the rim against LeBron and D-Wade. Joel Anthony, meanwhile has emerged as the premier center on the Heat due to his excellent defensive presence down low. How well he defends and rebounds against Chandler and the other Dallas bigs will go a long way in determining the outcome of the series.
Edge: Mavericks

Bench: Jason Terry/Peja Stojakovic/JJ Barea vs. James Jones/Mario Chalmers/Udonis Haslem

The Jet is a multiple NBA Sixth Man of the Year winner and is the primary perimeter scorer that the Mavs turn to late in games. Meanwhile, the resurgence of sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic has added more three-point shooting to help spread the floor for Dirk and driving lanes for the Maverick guards, like little JJ Barea, whose constant penetration and timely shot-making killed the Lakers and Thunder late in games.
Miami's bench is filled with a bunch of veterans, who do not have the explosive scoring ability as the Dallas reserves, but do play a role in giving LeBron and D-Wade occasional breathers. Jones is a knockdown three-point champion, while Mario Chalmers' quickness defensively and shooting threes can pose problems for opposing guards. Chalmers vs. Barea should be fun matchup to watch whenever they are on the court together. The comeback of Udonis Haslem has also boosted Miami's bench, as he can hit the 20-foot jump shot and is also a great rebounder.

Edge: Mavericks

Coaches: Rick Carlisle vs. Eric Spoulstra

Carlisle won a title as a player with the Celtics and has done a good job putting all the parts together in his third season in Dallas. Spoulstra meanwhile, has also managed the Heat well, instilling a defense-first mentality. However, his offensive philosophy (consisting of LeBron and D-Wade isolation and high-pick-and-rolls) bores me to death.

Edge: Mavericks

The Keys

I really think the series comes down to Dallas' guards stepping up and making plays down the stretch of games. Miami's defense really locks down dribble penetration late in games, so whether it is Barea, Terry, or Kidd making outside shots or setting up Dirk inside, Dallas must not go stagnant in the fourth quarter of games and be able to hold fourth quarter leads against the hottest player in the game right now in LeBron James. Getting to the free-throw line early and often is also key for both teams. Getting free points for Dirk from the charity stripe is often the best offense for Dallas in the fourth quarter of games, while LeBron and D-Wade's outside shooting seem to get going after getting fouled and making free-throws. Both teams will have to defend well, without fouling, as well as rebound to prevent second chance points for the other team, to end up lifting the Larry O'Brien trophy.

My prediction: With LeBron and the Heat defense playing this well, everyone has jumped on the Miami bandwagon. But, I will pick against them anyway, because of Dallas' superior depth off the bench, good outside shooting, and the fact that this may be the last chance Dirk and Jason Kidd have to win a ring. Plus, I can't picture LeBron smirking with the trophy in his hand without throwing up (just like all of Cleveland). win series in seven games, 4-3

Last round’s record: 2-0

Playoff record: 11-3

Wheldon Wins Indy 500

I have to be honest. I did not watch this race (or any other IndyCar race for that matter, NASCAR is so much better, plus watching cars going in circles on TV isn't really that entertaining), but what a finish it was to the 100th running of the Indy 500. In the end, it is heartbreak for rookie JR Hildebrand and pure joy for Dan Wheldon. Have to feel bad for the kid, hope he didn't blow his only chance to win at the Indy Brickyard.

Rockets Hire McHale

You have got to be kidding me. I have to be in some kind of awful nightmare.

Oh, wait this is Houston sports, where the Astros, Texans, and Rockets all seemingly enjoy being garbage year in and year out, aspiring to supplant Cleveland as most pathetic sports city in Houston.

Rant over, back to story, where my Houston Rockets hired Kevin McHale to be the next head coach to succeed Rick Adelman. Let me say that again: We fired the 8th-winningest coach in NBA history because we wanted a "young, up and coming coach" and then we go out and hire a 53-year old former player who has never coached a complete NBA season, and failed miserably in Minneosta when he had the one opportunity to coach. Absolutely ridiculous. I don't know if GM Daryl Morey or owner Les Alexander realize this or not, but just because Doug Collins had a successful first year in Philly does not mean all TNT commentators are going to be good coaches. Collins actually had previous coaching experience. So much for young coach too. If you wanted a Tom Thibodeau, why didn't you retain him when he was here under Van Gundy?

If this move ends up working out, and Kevin McHale is holding the Larry O'Brien trophy at Toyota Center in the next few years, I will repost this for all to see and admit I was wrong. But, somehow, I don't think that will be the case.

Lakers Hire Mike Brown

The Los Angeles Lakers have their new coach to replace Phil Jackson.

Mike Brown, the 2008-09 NBA Coach of the Year, was hired today as LA's 22nd coach, after agreeing to a four-year contract worth $18 million dollars. Most recently employed by the Cavaliers last season, overall, Brown went 272-138 in five seasons with LeBron in Cleveland, with one Finals appearance in 2007.

Brown is a great defensive coach and was a top assistant to Greg Poppovich in San Antonio for four seasons, before moving onto Cleveland and building one of the best defensive teams in the league. However, Brown's uncreative offensive philosophy in Cleveland over the years (consisting of LeBron isolations) makes this seem like a curious hire to me. The Lakers are a team that needs to get younger in the backcourt around Kobe, and Brown doesn't seem like the type of coach that has been able to develop young point guards (see Delonte West, Mo Williams). However, his defensive mindset should suit players like Ron Artest, Matt Barnes, and Derek Fisher, and a team that did struggle at times defensively during the season.

2011 NBA Playoffs: My Conference Finals Preview

Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs, as I predicted, took out the defending-champs (in a sweep!) behind Dirk Nowitzki dominating Pau Gasol and its blistering outside shooting. OKC, meanwhile, survived a fight against upstart Memphis and Zach Randolph, but rode Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Game 7 to victory this afternoon.

The key in this series will lie in the front-court, and on the backboards. Both teams can light it up on the scoreboard, so whichever team can get extra possessions by grabbing offensive rebounds and getting tip-ins will have an advantage. And although, OKC has the quickness and athleticism on the perimeter to cause problems for Dallas, I think Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki on the inside controlling the paint, along with Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, and Jason Kidd on the perimeter making threes, will propel the Mavs to the Finals.
Mavericks in 6

Eastern Conference
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
The Heat dispatched of the Celtics impressively in five games, riding LeBron and D-Wade (and also Bosh, who outplayed Garnett). The Bulls, meanwhile, withstood a scare from the lights-out shooting Hawks, riding MVP Derrick Rose. What a match-up this should be, with the last two MVPs meeting up, each looking for his first ring.

I think this series will come down to one match-up: at the power forward position with Chicago's Carlos Boozer against Chris Bosh. For Chicago to have a chance to win this series, Boozer must outplay Bosh on the interior to take a little of the scoring burden off of Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose and Dwayne Wade should dominate their individual matchups, and although Luol Deng is a good player, who needs to continue to contribute by playing great defense and making timely offensive plays, LeBron will win that battle. So, the Bulls will need Boozer and Joakim Noah to control the paint, and stop the drives of Wade and James at the rim without fouling. Off the bench, neither team has great depth, but Miami's James Jones and Chicago's Kyle Korver are outstanding shooters, who will play a role in keeping driving lanes open for Wade/James/Rose.
Ultimately, I think the two-headed monster LeBron and Wade and Miami's great team defense will be too much to handle for the Bulls, which tend to struggle offensively when Rose is not getting much help.
Heat in 7


Last round: 3-1
Playoffs record: 9-3