Sunday, February 7, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV Preview: Saints vs. Colts

QBs: Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning

Drew Brees guided the Saints attack to become the NFL’s #1 offense during the regular season, and has continued the masterful job throughout New Orleans’ two playoff wins, throwing for 444 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. If the Saints’ offensive line protects Brees, he should have another big game. Meanwhile, it was just another year for Peyton Manning, as he won his 4th MVP award, in leading the Colts to win every game it has tried to win. Considering the fact that he had to incorporate two young, new receivers in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie midseason and still put up his typical passing numbers shows that the award was well justified. Against a defense that thrives on turnovers, look for Manning to be careful with the ball and not force throws.

Slight Edge: Colts

RBs: Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush vs. Joseph Addai-Donald Brown

Part of the Saints attack new to this year was the success of their running game, with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Bush is an ex-factor, as he has the ability to break a long run with his elusiveness and speed, as well as make a costly mistake, like fumbling the ball. The Colts have been looking for a running game all season and it sort of emerged in the AFC Championship, as Addai and Brown gained over 100 rushing yards for one of the few times this year for Indy. The success of the running game of each team will be key to take pressure off of the great passing game of each team, while also allowing play-action to be more successful.

Edge: Saints

WRs: Marques Colston-Devery Henderson-Robert Meachum vs. Reggie Wayne-Pierre Garcon-Dallas Clark

The Saints, while they don’t have one great receiver, have a group of very good ones. Brees spreads the ball around between Colston and Meachum on shorter routes, Henderson on deeper routes, as well as running backs coming out of the back field. Reggie Wayne is the best receiver in the game, and is Manning’s big play target. Clark is a great tight-end that can line up at receiver and cause matchup nightmares, while Garcon as well as rookie Austin Collie have shown great improvement late in the season. I’ll give a slightest of edges to the Saints group of receivers.

Slight Edge: Saints

Defense:

Saints:

This unit has definitely been up and down the whole season, but the one consistent positive for New Orleans is their ability to force turnovers. They forced five turnovers on the Vikings, after accumulating 39 in the regular season. Against the run, they have struggled a bit this postseason, so look for the Colts to try to exploit that fact.

Colts:

Indy’s defense is a lot better than they have been given credit to, as they shut down the Ravens and Jets’ attacks in their AFC playoff games. Key is the health of All-Pro pass rusher Dwight Freeney and how effective he can be against the Saints o-line. Solid against the run and tough in the red zone, the Colts’ weakness is its secondary, and look for New Orleans to try to take advantage.

Edge: Colts

Kickers: Garrett Hartley vs. Matt Stover
The Saints’ Hartley has more range, while Stover is a little more accurate and brings years of experience.

Edge: Colts

Coach:

What a job Sean Payton has done in New Orleans after taking over in 2006, taking a perennial joke of a franchise to its first ever Super Bowl. The Colts Jim Caldwell became the first rookie head coach in NFL history to start 14-0, and has done a wonderful job taking over for Tony Dungy.

Edge: Saints

Bottom Line:

For the Saints to win, they must win the turnover battle and play well defensively, especially in the redzone. Controlling the clock with a solid running game to keep Manning off the field as much as possible is also key. For the Colts, they must get pressure on Drew Brees to avoid getting picked apart in their secondary. Offensively, they just have to play solidly and avoid costly mistakes. In the end, I just don’t think the Saints defense can find away to stop the Peyton Manning and the Colts from winning their third title.

My prediction: 30 26

Last week's record: 0-2
Season record: 181-85

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