2016 NBA Playoffs: My Conference Finals Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors

The Thunder surprised much of the basketball world by upsetting the Spurs in 6 games to set up this doozy of a series between these two Western Conference powers. The point guard matchup will be fun to watch, with MVP Stephen Curry, who returned after dealing with knee and ankle injuries in the first two rounds, to help Golden State finish off the Blazers in Games 4 and 5, against Russell Westbrook, who is coming off a series in which he averaged 25.2 ppg and 10.5 apg. Westbrook needs to continue to play smart in this series and not try to match Curry shot for shot, because he will lose if that happens. I think Kevin Durant will have his hands full this series as well, as the Warriors will likely throw Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, as well as Andre Iguodala (all good defenders) at him. So to win, OKC has to get the ball inside and dominate the boards with Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, and Serge Ibaka like they did against the Spurs. In the end, I think the Thunder have a real shot, but Warriors advance to the Finals.

Warriors in 6

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron and the Cavs three’d the Hawks to death in a sweep, while the Raptors won their second straight 7 game series in beating the injury-riddled Heat. I foresee another short series for Cleveland here, especially if Toronto can’t get center Jonas Valanciunas back 100%. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both had strong series against the Heat and will have to continue scoring efficiently for the Raptors to keep up with all the three-point shooters the Cavaliers have (JR Smith, Channing Frye, Matthew Dellavedova, Richard Jefferson) around LeBron, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Inside, the Raptors’ Bismack Biyombo has been playing well, but the Cavs just have too many bigs in Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, and Love, that I think Toronto will struggle on the glass as well.

Cavaliers in 5

Bracket Released

It's the most wonderful time of the year, as the NCAA tournament bracket was released early tonight on CBS.

Only real shock was including Tulsa getting in the field over St Bonaventure or Monmouth, each mid-majors that had outstanding seasons. Tulsa, which had a RPI of 61 and had three bad losses to Memphis (twice) and Oral Roberts, wasn't even on Joe Lunardi's radar, yet they will play in the First Four, matching up against Michigan in Dayton, Ohio. Meanwhile, the Bonnies had an RPI of 30 and Monmouth won 27 games and beat both USC and Notre Dame, who are in the tournament field.

Anyway, all debate aside, the tourney begins Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio with the First Four, and remember to stick here throughout the month as we cover the Madness!

Super Bowl 50 Preview: Panthers vs. Broncos

The NFL’s golden game is here, with Super Bowl 50 tonight in San Francisco. Let’s break down the game here.

QB: Cam Newton vs. Peyton Manning
Newton won the NFL MVP last night, as he led the Panthers to an NFL best 15-1 record with 35 TD and 10 INT. In his fourth year in the league, he has elevated to superstar level with his combination of running and throwing, all while dancing and giving away footballs to little kids after every touchdown. He will face his toughest test of the season tonight against the league’s top defense in Denver. Meanwhile, this should be 39-year old Peyton Manning’s last game in the NFL, after 18 years in the league. He had a rough statistical year, missing 6 games due to a foot injury and throwing 17 INT, to just 9 TD. His arm strength is gone at this point, and needs to outsmart Carolina’s defense by making smart audibles and not turning the ball over tonight against the Panthers’ ball-hawking defense.
Edge: Panthers

RB: Jonathan Stewart/Mike Tolbert vs. CJ Anderson/Ronnie Hillman

Stewart was 8^th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season and has averaged 5 yards per carry in the playoffs against two great defenses in Seattle and Arizona. Not a speed demon, his rushing between the tackles between the tackles sets up Newton and the passing game. Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert is a Pro Bowl fullback/H-back who can also pound it in on short yardage, as well as catch balls out of the back field. Against the Broncos’ #1 overall defense, Stewart and Tolbert will need to get some yards in early downs to limit the pass rushing ability of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and co. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a two-headed rushing attack, with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Anderson began the season as the #1 back but struggled at times during the season, allowing the speedier Hillman to gain more work. In their two postseason wins, however, Anderson has been much more effective, averaging 4.6 yards per carry to Hillman’s 2.0. To keep Peyton Manning in manageable down and distance, both have to have a good game for the Broncos to win.
Edge: Panthers

WR/TE: Ted Ginn Jr./Jerricho Cotchery/Greg Olsen vs. Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas/Owen Daniels
The Panthers receiving core was supposed to be a weakness of the team, with WR Kelvin Benjamin going down with a torn ACL in preseason and a collection of unproven and no-name receivers. Given the circumstances, it turned out decent in 2016. TE Greg Olsen was the team’s leading receiver and is a matchup nightmare in the secondary, with his size and route-running ability. WR Ted Ginn battled drops throughout the year but has world-class speed to get behind defenses, scoring a team-high 10 receiving TD. Meanwhile, the 33-year old Cotchery has had a solid season as the team’s third option running underneath routes as a possession receiver. The Broncos, despite all their issues in the passing game, had their top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, surpass 1000 yards. Thomas against Panthers shutdown corner Josh Norman will be one to watch tonight. In Gary Kubiak’s offense, TE Owen Daniels is also very important, as he scored 2 TD last weekend. He could be matched up against Luke Kuechly and has to win some one-on-one battles for Manning.
Edge: Broncos

Offensive Line:
The Panthers ranked 12^th in run blocking and 21^st in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com. Meanwhile, the Broncos ranked 17^th in run blocking and 13^th in pass blocking. Big games on won in the trenches, so whichever line is more successful in opening up gaps and protecting may determine the outcome.
Edge: Even

Defensive Line:
The Panthers will get veteran DE Jared Allen back after he missed the NFC Championship, and that should help a Carolina pass rush which has generated 8 sacks in their two wins. DT Kawaan Short had a team-high 11 sacks in the regular season, while Charles Johnson has added 2 in the postseason. They will try to control the line of scrimmage, an integral part to stopping Kubiak and the Broncos’ West coast offense. The Broncos generated the best pass rush in football in large part due to Von Miller (11 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (7.5 sacks), which just wrecked the Patriots’ offensive line in the AFC Championship game. They will need to contain Cam Newton in the pocket while pursuing him, as well as stop the Panthers’ lethal running game.
Edge: Broncos

Linebackers:
Luke Kuechly (118 tackles) and Thomas Davis (105 tackles, 5 ½ sacks) are the best linebacking duo in the game, as they are playmakers from sideline to sideline. Denver's offense is very dependent on throwing to the tight ends so their coverage on Daniels and Vernon Davis will be key in this game. On the other side, Danny Trevathan (109 tackles) and Brandon Marshall (102 tackles) will have their hands full trying to contain Greg Olsen and the Panthers' ground game.

Edge: Panthers

Secondary:

The Panthers have one of the top corners in the league in Josh Norman, who will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas, as well as hard hitting safeties in Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper. But after that, the Panthers' secondary has been depleted by injuries, so watch for Emmanuel Sanders to try to take advantage of a matchup with Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan. On the other side, Denver had the #1 passing defense due to great play from Aqib Talib (16 passes defensed). He, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby will try to slow down the Panthers' speedy wide receivers.

Edge: Broncos

Special Teams:

The Panthers' kicking game is middle of the pack, with Graham Gano and Brad Nortman, but above average in the return with the electric Ted Ginn, Jr. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a good kicking combo with Brandon McManus (who benefits from mile-high altitude) and punter Britton Colquitt, but a below average return teams with the combo of Omar Boldin and Sanders.
Slight Edge: Broncos

Coaching:

Ron Rivera was on the hot seat last year when the Panthers started 3-8-1, but since then, the Panthers have lost only twice, as they had team the best record in the NFL by letting his players embrace and follow his star player, Cam Newton's lead. Meanwhile, Gary Kubiak, two years removed from being fired by the Texans, has successfully elevated the Broncos back to the Super Bowl, on the strength of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' #1 defense.

Edge: Even

Bottom Line:

For Denver to win, their defense has to contain Cam Newton in the pocket and stop the run on early downs, to force Cam Newton into third and long, which the Broncos' pass rush thrives. Offensively, they have to play turnover free against the playmakers on Carolina's D and establish the run early and often to keep Manning from having to force throws he isn't capable of making anymore. Running the ball effectively will also control the clock and keep Newton and the quick-strike Panthers off the field.

For Carolina to win, their offensive line has to hold up against Denver's four man pass rush and open up gaps for Stewart and the running game. That will allow Cam Newton to ease into the game and be a dynamic playmaker, something Denver's defense hasn't faced yet this year. Defensively, Carolina needs to take advantage of any takeaway opportunities and stop Denver's rushing attack.

In the end, because both defenses are so good, I expect it to be a low-scoring, drag-it-out close affair. Denver has been so good in close games this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see Peyton Manning ride off into retirement with his second Super Bowl victory. But I think Cam Newton and the Panthers are the more talented team and raise the Lombardi tonight.

My prediction: 

2017

Last round's record: 1-1
Playoff record: 8-2

All-time Super Bowl record: 3-3

NFL Picks: Conference Championships

#2 Patriots @ #1 Broncos 2:05 PM CT CBS
It's the Brady-Manning Bowl for the 17th and likely final time, with the AFC Championship in Denver. Except this time, it's Denver's #1 outstanding defense trying to slowdown a Patriot attack which overmatched the Chiefs last weekend. I think Gronk is an ex-factor and New England's underrated defense shuts down the Broncos' running game, forcing Manning to try to beat them. I don't think that will happen, as Peyton rides off into the sunset two wins shy of a second ring.

#2 Cardinals @ #1 Panthers 5:40 PM CT FOX
In the NFC Championship, two great defenses clash with Arizona and Carolina. In the end, I think it comes down to QB play. Carson Palmer looked like a mess last weekend, while Cam Newton is still playing on an MVP-level. Give me the Panthers in a nailbiter.

Last week: 3-1
Playoffs record: 7-1

NBA All-Star Voting

Voting for 2016 NBA All-Star ends tomorrow. Vote at vote.nba.com or tweet/FB using hashtag #NBAVote. The players I voted for are below.

NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

#5 Chiefs @ #2 Patriots 3:30 PM CT CBS
KC took out my Texans easily last week and continue to be the hottest team in the NFL, riding a stifling defense. They'll have their hands full with a rested Tom Brady, who will also get his top wide receiver back in Julian Edelman. I expect a low scoring game (as New England's defense will shut down the banged up Chiefs' offense), with the Pats advancing to another AFC Championship.

#5 Packers @ #2 Cardinals 7 PM CT NBC
Green Bay's offense returned from its long slumber in throttling the Redskins last weekend to set up this rematch of a Week 16 encounter, which Arizona won 38-8. The Cardinals' D dominated the Green Bay offense that day by forcing turnovers, stifling the running game, and harassing Aaron Rodgers in the pocket all game long. I think this game is a lot closer, but Arizona uses the same formula for success as last time to get the W.

#6 Seahawks @ #1 Panthers 12 PM FOX
The Super Bowl champs survived the bittercold of Minneapolis thanks to the Blair Walsh choke, to set up this awesome matchup with the 15-1 Panthers. Both teams have great defenses, which should limit the running games. So it'll come down to Cam Newton vs. Russell Wilson, two dual threat quarterbacks who are the faces of their teams. Although Greg Olsen may exploit holes in the Seattle secondary, give me the playoff pedigree of the Seahawks in a nail-biter.

#6 Steelers @ #2 Broncos 3:30 PM CBS
Pittsburgh survived the backyard brawl with Cincy last week, but paid the price it lost star WR Antonio Brown to a concussion, as well as banging up QB Ben Roethlisberger. That, coupled with RB DeAngelo Williams still being out does not project well against the NFL's top defense in Denver. I think the Broncos' defense stifles the Steelers, allowing Peyton Manning to knock the rust off and get into another AFC title game.

Last week: 4-0

NFL Picks: Wildcard Weekend

Saturday, January 9 Chiefs 3:35 PM Texans ESPN/ABC

My hometown Texans won an especially lousy AFC South this year to sneak into the playoffs, despite starting 2-5 and losing starting running back Arian Foster early on, behind smashmouth defense led by likely defensive POY JJ Watt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, who also started out horribly at 1-5, are the hottest team in the NFL with 10 straight wins, behind a dominant defense and mistake-free football from QB Alex Smith. I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, with KC prevailing. I think the Texans missing LT Duane Brown on the offensive line will be their undoing, as they won't be able to protect QB Brian Hoyer.

Steelers 7:15 PM Bengals

CBS

An AFC North showdown between these two rivals, who split the season series and have had some feisty encounters over the last couple of years. Pittsburgh's offense is scary good, even though they lost RB DeAngelo Williams last week, and the Cincy D will have its hands full trying to cover Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and co. Meanwhile, the Bengals will try to snap their long playoff win drought without starting QB Andy Dalton, who is still out with the broken thumb. Sorry, Cincy, just don't see AJ McCarron ending the streak for y'all.

Sunday, January 10

Seahawks 12:05 PM Vikings NBC This game is a rematch of an earlier season encounter between the two teams, in which the Seahawks won big. Although the gametime temperature will be about 3 degrees, I like the same outcome, with the veteran Seahawks taking out the upstart Vikings. I just don't see Teddy Bridgewater making enough plays against Seattle's secondary to pull off the upset. Packers 3:40 PM on FOX Redskins Green Bay limped down the stretch, as their offense has squidded to an awful end of the season. It starts up front as the Pack have no running game and have had trouble protecting Aaron Rodgers. Redskins won a weak NFC East and probably have more momentum going into this game, but I'll go with Rodgers over Kirk Cousins in a squeaker.