The big game in my hometown is tonight. Let's break it down.
QB: Tom
Brady vs. Matt Ryan
Brady is
trying to win his record fifth Super Bowl and cement his status as the greatest
of all-time. He came back from a 4 game suspension due to the Deflategate
scandal and had an awesome regular season, throwing 28 TD, with just 2 INT,
while leading the Patriots to the top seed in the AFC. In the playoffs, he
bounced back from a rough performance against the top-ranked Texans defense, by
carving up the Steelers in the AFC Championship game to the tune of 384 passing
yards and 3 TD. The blueprint for the Falcons defense is to confuse Brady with
coverages long enough for their pass rush to get to him. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan
was named the NFL MVP last night, and for good reason. He led the Falcons to
the top ranked scoring offense, throwing for 4944 passing yards and 38 TD, in a
career rejuvenation under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's tutelage. He
has been lights out in the playoffs in shredding both the Seahawks and Packers
defenses.
Edge:
Even
RB:
LeGarrett Blount/Dion Lewis vs. Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman
Blount
was 8th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season but has
struggled to find room to run in the playoffs, as he's averaged only 3.3 yards
per carry. New England's running game opens up their playbook and allows play
action down the field. A key in this game will be whether Blount and Dion
Lewis, who scored three touchdowns against the Texans in the divisional round,
can have an impact against an Atlanta defense which has yet to allow a rushing
touchdown this postseason, but has given up 100 yards per game. Meanwhile, the
Falcons have one of the most dynamic running duos in the NFL, with Devonta
Freeman, who finished 9th and Tevin Coleman, who finished 33rd in rushing in the regular season. Both are
skilled enough to run in between the tackles and outside, while also being able
to catch the ball out of the backfield. They will need to have an impact on
this game for the Falcons to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Edge: Falcons
Edge: Falcons
WR/TE:
Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett vs. Julio Jones/Mohamed
Sanu/Taylor Gabriel
The
Patriots lost their biggest receiving threat in Rob Gronkowski for the season
with a back injury, but the Patriots have had no-names step up and fill the
void, as has been the case for the past decade. Julian Edelman is the team's
leading receiver (4th in the league with 98 receptions) and is a matchup
nightmare in the slot position, because is so shifty and good at running
routes. Chris Hogan has emerged in the playoffs as a downfield threat, with 275
receiving yards and 3 TDs. Martellus Bennett has filled in aptly for
Gronkowski, although he is battling a nagging knee injury going into this
game.
Julio
Jones showed the world how good he was in the NFC Championship Game as he had 9
catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns in decimating the Packers' secondary.
His combination of size, speed, and leaping ability is why the Falcons gave all
those draft picks to get him, and he has stayed healthy this year to be Ryan's
#1 downfield threat. Sanu and Gabriel are solid route runners who are
sure-handed second and third options, respectively.
Edge: Falcons
Edge: Falcons
Offensive
Line:
The
Patriots ranked 9th in
run blocking and 6th in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com.
Meanwhile, the Falcons ranked 10th in
run blocking and 23rd in
pass blocking. I think the New England o-line against the Atlanta pass rush is
the matchup that will decide this game. The Falcons have to get pressure on
Brady to make up for a secondary susceptible to big plays.
Edge: Patriots
Edge: Patriots
Defensive Line:
The
Patriots d-line excels against the run but has struggled to pressure on
opposing quarterbacks this season. Trey Flowers (who led the team with 7 sacks)
is the best pass rusher and DT Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown are disruptive as
well against the run. They will have to slow down Freeman and Coleman tonight
to make Atlanta's offense one-dimensional. The Falcons defensive line has
struggled against both the run and the pass at times this year. DT Grady
Jarrett had 3 sacks in the regular season and Jordan Babineaux can makes plays
as well, but that unit will have their hands full trying to make plays against
a good Patriots offensive line.
Edge: Patriots
Linebackers:
The
Patriots linebacking core is led by Dont'a Hightower, who had 65 combined
tackles from his inside linebacker position, along with 2.5 sacks. Rob
Ninkovich is a good edge rusher as well who had 4 sacks in the regular season.
For Atlanta, OLB Vic Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks and will need to be
contained by the Patriots' offensive line to keep Brady on his feet. MLB Deion
Jones was a contender for defensive rookie of the year, and for good reason, as
he had 75 tackles in the regular season and has 11 in their two playoff wins.
Edge: Falcons
Secondary:
The
Patriots have one of the best secondaries in football, with safety Devin
McCourty, and two great corners in Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. They'll face
a stiff test against the speed and precise route running of the Atlanta
receivers. Atlanta's strength in the secondary are the two safeties, Keanu Neal
(72 tackles in regular season) and Ricardo Allen (61 tackles), who are
playmakers that make a lot of tackles in the running game. How CB Robert Alford
and Jalen Collins play against Patriots' shifty receivers will be key in this
game. I think not having top corner Desmond Trufant will hurt a lot.
Edge: Patriots
Special
Teams:
The
Patriots always have a good special teams, even with kicker Stephen Gostkowski
having an up and down season kicking field goals. They have excellent
kick and punt coverage teams and a good return game with Dion Lewis or Danny
Amendola. The Falcons' kicker, Matt Bryant, is virtually automatic, especially
indoors. Their kick and punt coverage teams are OK, as well as their return
game with Eric Weems.
Slight Edge: Patriots
Bottom Line:
For
Atlanta to win, their defense has to confuse Tom Brady with their coverages,
which will force him to hold the ball and potentially make mistakes when under
pressure. They have to be able to get the ball down the field to secondary
receivers like Sanu, Gabriel, as well as their running backs, especially if
Butler locks down Julio Jones.
For New
England to win, their offensive line has to win against the Atlanta defensive
line and protect Tom Brady. Their receivers need to take advantage on the
outside against the inexperienced Atlanta corners. Defensively, they need to
stop Atlanta's ground game first and prevent the big passing plays down the
field from Matt Ryan.
In the
end, it's going to be a shootout, which will be welcome, after last year's
defensive struggle. I think New England is able to contain the Falcons on the
ground, and their secondary is able to make enough plays against the Atlanta
playmakers. As he did the last time the Super Bowl was in Houston, Tom Brady
marches his team down the field and cements his status (not without
controversy) as the greatest QB of all-time, with his fifth ring. And an
awkward moment with commissioner Roger Goddell.
27
Playoff record: 10-0
All-time Super Bowl record: 3-4
