The NFL’s golden game is here, with Super Bowl 50 tonight in San Francisco. Let’s break down the game here.
QB: Cam Newton vs. Peyton Manning
Newton won the NFL MVP last night, as he led the Panthers to an NFL best 15-1 record with 35 TD and 10 INT. In his fourth year in the league, he has elevated to superstar level with his combination of running and throwing, all while dancing and giving away footballs to little kids after every touchdown. He will face his toughest test of the season tonight against the league’s top defense in Denver. Meanwhile, this should be 39-year old Peyton Manning’s last game in the NFL, after 18 years in the league. He had a rough statistical year, missing 6 games due to a foot injury and throwing 17 INT, to just 9 TD. His arm strength is gone at this point, and needs to outsmart Carolina’s defense by making smart audibles and not turning the ball over tonight against the Panthers’ ball-hawking defense.
Edge: Panthers
Newton won the NFL MVP last night, as he led the Panthers to an NFL best 15-1 record with 35 TD and 10 INT. In his fourth year in the league, he has elevated to superstar level with his combination of running and throwing, all while dancing and giving away footballs to little kids after every touchdown. He will face his toughest test of the season tonight against the league’s top defense in Denver. Meanwhile, this should be 39-year old Peyton Manning’s last game in the NFL, after 18 years in the league. He had a rough statistical year, missing 6 games due to a foot injury and throwing 17 INT, to just 9 TD. His arm strength is gone at this point, and needs to outsmart Carolina’s defense by making smart audibles and not turning the ball over tonight against the Panthers’ ball-hawking defense.
Edge: Panthers
RB: Jonathan Stewart/Mike Tolbert vs. CJ Anderson/Ronnie Hillman
Stewart was 8th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season and has averaged 5 yards per carry in the playoffs against two great defenses in Seattle and Arizona. Not a speed demon, his rushing between the tackles between the tackles sets up Newton and the passing game. Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert is a Pro Bowl fullback/H-back who can also pound it in on short yardage, as well as catch balls out of the back field. Against the Broncos’ #1 overall defense, Stewart and Tolbert will need to get some yards in early downs to limit the pass rushing ability of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and co. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a two-headed rushing attack, with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Anderson began the season as the #1 back but struggled at times during the season, allowing the speedier Hillman to gain more work. In their two postseason wins, however, Anderson has been much more effective, averaging 4.6 yards per carry to Hillman’s 2.0. To keep Peyton Manning in manageable down and distance, both have to have a good game for the Broncos to win.
Edge: Panthers
Edge: Panthers
WR/TE: Ted Ginn Jr./Jerricho Cotchery/Greg Olsen vs. Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas/Owen Daniels
The Panthers receiving core was supposed to be a weakness of the team, with WR Kelvin Benjamin going down with a torn ACL in preseason and a collection of unproven and no-name receivers. Given the circumstances, it turned out decent in 2016. TE Greg Olsen was the team’s leading receiver and is a matchup nightmare in the secondary, with his size and route-running ability. WR Ted Ginn battled drops throughout the year but has world-class speed to get behind defenses, scoring a team-high 10 receiving TD. Meanwhile, the 33-year old Cotchery has had a solid season as the team’s third option running underneath routes as a possession receiver. The Broncos, despite all their issues in the passing game, had their top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, surpass 1000 yards. Thomas against Panthers shutdown corner Josh Norman will be one to watch tonight. In Gary Kubiak’s offense, TE Owen Daniels is also very important, as he scored 2 TD last weekend. He could be matched up against Luke Kuechly and has to win some one-on-one battles for Manning.
Edge: Broncos
The Panthers receiving core was supposed to be a weakness of the team, with WR Kelvin Benjamin going down with a torn ACL in preseason and a collection of unproven and no-name receivers. Given the circumstances, it turned out decent in 2016. TE Greg Olsen was the team’s leading receiver and is a matchup nightmare in the secondary, with his size and route-running ability. WR Ted Ginn battled drops throughout the year but has world-class speed to get behind defenses, scoring a team-high 10 receiving TD. Meanwhile, the 33-year old Cotchery has had a solid season as the team’s third option running underneath routes as a possession receiver. The Broncos, despite all their issues in the passing game, had their top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, surpass 1000 yards. Thomas against Panthers shutdown corner Josh Norman will be one to watch tonight. In Gary Kubiak’s offense, TE Owen Daniels is also very important, as he scored 2 TD last weekend. He could be matched up against Luke Kuechly and has to win some one-on-one battles for Manning.
Edge: Broncos
Offensive Line:
The Panthers ranked 12th in run blocking and 21st in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com. Meanwhile, the Broncos ranked 17th in run blocking and 13th in pass blocking. Big games on won in the trenches, so whichever line is more successful in opening up gaps and protecting may determine the outcome.
Edge: Even
The Panthers ranked 12th in run blocking and 21st in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com. Meanwhile, the Broncos ranked 17th in run blocking and 13th in pass blocking. Big games on won in the trenches, so whichever line is more successful in opening up gaps and protecting may determine the outcome.
Edge: Even
Defensive Line:
The Panthers will get veteran DE Jared Allen back after he missed the NFC Championship, and that should help a Carolina pass rush which has generated 8 sacks in their two wins. DT Kawaan Short had a team-high 11 sacks in the regular season, while Charles Johnson has added 2 in the postseason. They will try to control the line of scrimmage, an integral part to stopping Kubiak and the Broncos’ West coast offense. The Broncos generated the best pass rush in football in large part due to Von Miller (11 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (7.5 sacks), which just wrecked the Patriots’ offensive line in the AFC Championship game. They will need to contain Cam Newton in the pocket while pursuing him, as well as stop the Panthers’ lethal running game.
Edge: Broncos
The Panthers will get veteran DE Jared Allen back after he missed the NFC Championship, and that should help a Carolina pass rush which has generated 8 sacks in their two wins. DT Kawaan Short had a team-high 11 sacks in the regular season, while Charles Johnson has added 2 in the postseason. They will try to control the line of scrimmage, an integral part to stopping Kubiak and the Broncos’ West coast offense. The Broncos generated the best pass rush in football in large part due to Von Miller (11 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (7.5 sacks), which just wrecked the Patriots’ offensive line in the AFC Championship game. They will need to contain Cam Newton in the pocket while pursuing him, as well as stop the Panthers’ lethal running game.
Edge: Broncos
Linebackers:
Luke Kuechly (118 tackles) and Thomas Davis (105 tackles, 5 ½ sacks) are the best linebacking duo in the game, as they are playmakers from sideline to sideline. Denver's offense is very dependent on throwing to the tight ends so their coverage on Daniels and Vernon Davis will be key in this game. On the other side, Danny Trevathan (109 tackles) and Brandon Marshall (102 tackles) will have their hands full trying to contain Greg Olsen and the Panthers' ground game.
Luke Kuechly (118 tackles) and Thomas Davis (105 tackles, 5 ½ sacks) are the best linebacking duo in the game, as they are playmakers from sideline to sideline. Denver's offense is very dependent on throwing to the tight ends so their coverage on Daniels and Vernon Davis will be key in this game. On the other side, Danny Trevathan (109 tackles) and Brandon Marshall (102 tackles) will have their hands full trying to contain Greg Olsen and the Panthers' ground game.
Edge: Panthers
Secondary:
The Panthers have one of the top corners in the league in Josh Norman, who will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas, as well as hard hitting safeties in Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper. But after that, the Panthers' secondary has been depleted by injuries, so watch for Emmanuel Sanders to try to take advantage of a matchup with Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan. On the other side, Denver had the #1 passing defense due to great play from Aqib Talib (16 passes defensed). He, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby will try to slow down the Panthers' speedy wide receivers.
Edge: Broncos
Special Teams:
The Panthers' kicking game is middle of the pack, with Graham Gano and Brad Nortman, but above average in the return with the electric Ted Ginn, Jr. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a good kicking combo with Brandon McManus (who benefits from mile-high altitude) and punter Britton Colquitt, but a below average return teams with the combo of Omar Boldin and Sanders.
Slight Edge: Broncos
Slight Edge: Broncos
Coaching:
Ron Rivera was on the hot seat last year when the Panthers started 3-8-1, but since then, the Panthers have lost only twice, as they had team the best record in the NFL by letting his players embrace and follow his star player, Cam Newton's lead. Meanwhile, Gary Kubiak, two years removed from being fired by the Texans, has successfully elevated the Broncos back to the Super Bowl, on the strength of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' #1 defense.
Edge: Even
Bottom Line:
For Denver to win, their defense has to contain Cam Newton in the pocket and stop the run on early downs, to force Cam Newton into third and long, which the Broncos' pass rush thrives. Offensively, they have to play turnover free against the playmakers on Carolina's D and establish the run early and often to keep Manning from having to force throws he isn't capable of making anymore. Running the ball effectively will also control the clock and keep Newton and the quick-strike Panthers off the field.
For Carolina to win, their offensive line has to hold up against Denver's four man pass rush and open up gaps for Stewart and the running game. That will allow Cam Newton to ease into the game and be a dynamic playmaker, something Denver's defense hasn't faced yet this year. Defensively, Carolina needs to take advantage of any takeaway opportunities and stop Denver's rushing attack.
In the end, because both defenses are so good, I expect it to be a low-scoring, drag-it-out close affair. Denver has been so good in close games this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see Peyton Manning ride off into retirement with his second Super Bowl victory. But I think Cam Newton and the Panthers are the more talented team and raise the Lombardi tonight.
My prediction:
20
17Last round's record: 1-1
Playoff record: 8-2
All-time Super Bowl record: 3-3
