Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Grizzlies locked in on Kevin Durant and knocked out the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder, while the Spurs withstood and wore down Stephen Curry to edge the Warriors, setting up a rematch of a 2011 first round matchup, when the 8th seeded Grizzlies upset the top-seeded Spurs.
I think style of play will be very important in this series. The Spurs can win multiple different ways, but they will want to push the pace of the game and get transition points before the Grizzlies' outstanding half-court defense is set. If they get out early and run, and get role players like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Gary Neal involved early and often, it will make it much harder on Memphis, which thrives on slow-it-down, slugfests by pounding the ball inside to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
Although Randolph/Duncan will be a fun match-up to watch inside, I think the Spurs will double team the post early and often and force the Grizzlies to hit perimeter shots to beat them. As a result, Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen, Jerryd Bayless, and Quincy Pondexter will have to ready and able to knock down open shots for the Grizzlies to pull off the upset and advance to the Finals.
Most key matchup in this series will be at point guard position, with Mike Conley against Tony Parker. Conley has become a dynamic perimeter scorer, and he will have to defend well against the former Finals MVP in Parker, as well as put pressure on him by scoring himself.
This series really could go either way, but I think this is Memphis' time (sorry San Antonio, yours is up), and I'm going to take the team that would give the Heat the most problem in a championship series, and hope for the best.
Grizzlies in 7
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
The Heat survived an early scare from Bulls, before overwhelming the depleted Bulls in 5. The Pacers, meanwhile, won a gritty series with the Knicks, winning Game 6 at home.
Now it'll be a rematch of last year's East semis, with Miami's Big 3 once again going up against the grit and tenacity of Indiana, with a trip to the Finals on the line. Just like last year, Miami is the better team on paper, especially with the hot shooting of Chris Bosh, Ray Allen and Norris Cole. However, if the Pacers slow the pace of the game down by pounding the Heat inside, with David West and Roy Hibbert, something that they did not do effectively last year, Indiana has a chance of pulling off the upset, especially if George Hill, D.J. Augustin, and Paul George are able to hit outside jumpers, and George is able to somewhat contain LeBron James one-on-one, as he did Carmelo Anthony in the last round. In the end, I think Pacers, even though a better team. suffer same fate as last year.
Heat in 6
Last round: 4-0
Playoffs record: 10-2
Western Conference
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC may have gotten by my scrappy Rockets, but they paid a price for it, losing all-star PG Russell Westbrook for the rest of the playoffs. Kevin Durant will have to light it up again for the Thunder to get past the #1 defensive team in the league in Memphis, which absolutely stifled and out-muscled the Clippers in winning four straight games. Unless OKC's role players (Kevin Martin, Serge Ibaka) really step it up and contribute, I like the Grizzlies ablility to contain Durant and control the pace of the game effectively by pounding it inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
Grizzlies in 6
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
PG Stephen Curry is the hottest shooter on the planet at the moment, lighting up the scoreboard against the Nuggets and leading Golden State to the upset. His matchup with PG Tony Parker will be the one to watch in this match-up. I think it comes down to playoff experience and the front court of the Spurs with a rejuvenated Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, and Boris Diaw simply being too much for Andrew Bogut and the Warriors to handle. Plus, Golden State hasn't won a game in San Antonio since 1997.
Spurs in 6
Eastern Conference
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
The depleted Bulls simply wanted it more against the Nets. Despite not having Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich for the final two games, Chicago showed its heart by eliminating the Nets in Game 7 last night. Now can the Bulls get healthy enough to stop the MVP and the red-hot Heat in round 2? I think they can make Miami work for it, if they play extremely physical, like the game that ended Miami's 27-game winning streak. But, assuming Dwayne Wade is healthy, Miami is just way too talented.
Heat in 5
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Both teams looked shaky in their opening round series, as the Knicks blew two chances to eliminate the Celtics before withstanding a huge rally in Game 6, while the Pacers looked dreadful in their two road losses in Games 3 and 4, before destroying Atlanta with stifling defense in their closeout Game 6 victory. This series will depend on which team can impose their style on the game. The Knicks want to run and shoot threes, while Indiana wants to pound the ball inside with David West and Roy Hibbert, and play outstanding defense. In the end, even though the Knicks have the best player on the court in Carmelo Anthony and even though the Pacers have looked so bad on the road this year, I'm picking Paul George and Indiana to advance, just because I think they have a better shot at knocking out the Heat in the East Finals.
Pacers in 7
My First Round Record: 6-2
