It's the Harbowl down in the Big Easy, and here's the breakdown of who's going to win it all.
QB: Joe Flacco vs. Colin Kaepernick
Two quarterbacks that have grown up before our eyes the last couple weeks, with Joe Flacco outgunning Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady (combined 8 TD's, 0 INT!), while Kaepernick ran all over Green Bay, and threw all over Atlanta. Flacco is on fire at the moment, and if he has time to throw in the pocket, he has been hitting his receivers in Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Dennis Pitta in stride. The only quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in his first five seasons in the league, he can take that final step into eternal greatness with a Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile, Kaepernick, who is just making his 10th career start, has brought another dimension to a dynamic offense with his running ability, off the pistol formation. He'll be trying to do emulate what happened the last time the Super Bowl was in New Orleans, when a guy named Brady, who took over the starting QB job during the middle of the season, won a Super Bowl.
Slight Edge: Ravens
RB: Ray Rice/Bernard Pierce vs. Frank Gore/LaMichael James
Both teams have outstanding running games, and will look to establish them early on in the game. Baltimore rookie Bernard Pierce has really emerged over the last month (since Jim Caldwell was promoted to OC), and was an integral part of helping the Ravens upset New England in the AFC Championship, when he rushed 9 times for 52 yards). The shifty Ray Rice, who has been shut down in recent weeks, will look to get the ball a lot off short passes, if Flacco gets under pressure from the outstanding 49er pass-rush. San Francisco's dynamic offense will also depend a lot on its running game, with veteran Frank Gore (who played an integral role in the NFC Championship Game) carrying the load behind arguably the best offensive line in football.
Edge: 49ers
WR/TE: Torrey Smith/Anquan Boldin/Dennis Pitta vs. Michael Crabtree/Randy Moss/Vernon Davis
The Ravens' wide receivers have been sensational during the Ravens' run through the AFC, with a combination of speed and toughness. Torrey Smith and slot receiver Jacoby Jones (who caught the game-tying TD in the final seconds in Denver) are extremely fast and are a threat to score everytime to touch the ball. Meanwhile, Anquan Boldin and TE Dennis Pitta carved up the Patriots' mediocre secondary underneath, and will look to do the same against a San Francisco secondary which gave up 396 passing yards to Atlanta in the NFC title game.
For the 49ers, WR Michael Crabtree has really emerged as a true #1 since Kaepernick took over as quarterback, and he along with will look to open up TE Vernon Davis underneath, who will be a matchup nightmare for the Baltimore defense. Also, look for WR Randy Moss, fresh off declaring himself the best wide receiver who ever played, to try to get behind a Baltimore defense which has been susceptible to the big play at times this year.
Edge: Ravens
Defense:
Ravens:
Ranked just 17th in the regular season, the Baltimore defense finally got healthy for the playoffs, and has been outstanding in their upset wins in Denver and New England. Obviously, the big storyline is LB Ray Lewis, who is trying to the win the Super Bowl in the final game of his outstanding career. While he has been outstanding (leading the playoffs in tackles), I think the key in this game will be the play of NT Haloti Ngata. If he can get in the backfield and neutralize the 49ers' read-option running game, it will allow a ball-hawking and hard hitting secondary led by safety Ed Reed and corner Corey Graham to be more effective. Also, keeping Kaepernick contained in the pocket by getting pass rush from Terrell Suggs will be big for Baltimore.
49ers:
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense, which ranked 3rd in the regular season, has carried this team to New Orleans. With possibly the best front seven in football, led by linebackers Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman, the Ravens might have trouble running the ball effectively tonight. When defending the pass, the Niners' pass rush of Justin and Aldon Smith (who has struggled recently) will look to put pressure on Joe Flacco, who is not as good when under pressure. The secondary, meanwhile, must avoid giving up big plays against the speedy Baltimore receivers, something they did not do against the Falcons.
Edge: 49ers
Special Teams
The Ravens have a Pro Bowl punt returner in Jacoby Jones and a great kicker in Justin Tucker, while the 49ers' David Akers has been extremely shaky this season.
Edge: Ravens
Coach:
The proudest parents in the world tonight will be Mom and Dad Harbaugh, as their sons Jim and John will go head to head for the Lombardi Trophy.
John, the older and more soft-spoken one, has led Baltimore to the playoffs all of his five years, and does have a 16-6 victory over little brother John in Harbowl I back on Thanksgiving 2011.
Meanwhile, Jim the feisty and more animated brother, has led a remarkable turnover in San Francisco since taking over in 2011 after putting Stanford back on the map. In leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl in his first two seasons, his biggest/gutsiest call might have been benching Alex Smith for Kaepernick as the starting QB in the middle of the season, a move that has paid instant dividends.
Edge: Even
Bottom Line:
For the Ravens to win, they must protect Joe Flacco and get him time to throw the ball down the field to his wide receivers. Also, unlike Atlanta, they must avoid turnovers and keep playing outstanding defense which got them upset wins in Denver and New England. Getting just enough of a running game to keep the Niners from teeing off on Flacco will be important as well.
Meanwhile, for the 49ers, they have to limit the big plays of the Ravens wide receivers by keeping them in front. Offensively, they should try to control the clock by running the ball, and depending their outstanding defense.
In the end, this is a pick more on gut and heart, rather than reason, as I'll go with the hotter team riding the emotion of the face of a franchise playing in his final football ever.
My prediction:
24
23
Last week's record: 0-2
Season record: 163-102-1
