It's an all-weather final (Thunder vs. Heat, get it?), and for the first time since 1997 (Malone vs. Jordan), it'll be the top 2 vote getters for MVP facing off in the NBA Finals, with Kevin Durant and the Thunder taking on LeBron James and the Heat. Let's break it down, match-up by match-up.
Point Guards: Mario Chalmers vs. Russell Westbrook
Chalmers has played a small yet important role in the Heat advancing to the finals. When defenses come off him to double D-Wade or LeBron, Chalmers has hit some big three-pointers and finished drives to the basket to alleviate some of the scoring burden off of James and Wade. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook has played exceptionally in the postseason, and has done a better job of recognizing when he should attack, and when to defer to Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter of games. He has also kept the turnovers down, and his aggressiveness and ability to score will be integral for the Thunder's chances in the series.
Edge:
Thunder
Shooting Guards: Dwayne Wade vs. Thabo Sefolosha
This matchup should be fun to watch, as Sefolosha is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, facing one of the most prolific scorers in the league. His physicality and quickness could cause Wade some problems, as he has struggled in the first halves of games this postseason. In addition, his ability to knock down open three-point shots when Durant or Westbrook are double teamed was key in helping the Thunder beat the Spurs. For Wade, although he is a little banged up, and has struggled a little bit, in the second halves of games, in crunch time, he has been at his best: whether attacking the rim and getting to the foul-line, hitting timely jump shots, or setting up shots for his teammates. With Wade, who is in his third NBA Finals, the Thunder's best hope is that Sefolosha makes him work for all his points, keeping him out of the paint, and forcing him to take long jumpers, which they were able to do with Ginobili and Parker in the fourth quarter of their wins in the Spurs series.
Significant Edge:
Heat
Small Forwards: LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant
How about this matchup? The top two MVP candidates going head to head, against each other on both ends of the court. LeBron, who has been absolutely sensational this postseason, in carrying the Heat on nights Wade and the supporting cast is struggling, with incredible drives or shots, while also fueling the Heat's disciplined athletic defense through his ability to swat away shots at the rim and his strength to rebuild effectively. Not to mention the fact that he unstoppable in the open-court on fast-breaks. Meanwhile, Durant, the two-time scoring champion, has been unstoppable himself for OKC throughout these playoffs. His ability to rise up and make tough jump shots up and over great defenders makes him a marvel to watch. Defensively, he has also improved immensely this year, taking advantage of his 7-foot wingspan, most notably frustrating Kobe Bryant in their series against the Lakers.
Matched up head to head in this series, it should be fun to watch. Durant has the quickness and length to make it hard on LeBron in this series on the perimeter, so I think it's essential that the Heat run LeBron through screens and in motion to force OKC to switch or help with other defenders, causing more of an advantage for LeBron to operate. On the other side, while Durant won't be able to post-up against the stronger James, similarly, if OKC gives Durant some weak-side screens, it should give him enough airspace to shoot over LeBron. Additionally, both teams need to make it a priority to get these two the ball in transition, before the halfcourt defenses are set, allowing them to attack the basket and get to the foul line.
Slight Edge:
Heat
Power Forwards: Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka
Whether or not the banged up Bosh starts in this series doesn't really matter, because he will play enough minutes to make an impact on the series, if the Heat hopes to win. He really is the x-factor, to me, in this series because of his ability to play in the low-post and finish around the rim, something Miami really lacked (a big guy who can finish) when he was hurt. In addition, if he can step out and consistently hit the 18-20 foot jump shot, when defenses double LeBron and Wade, as he did in Game 7 against the Celtics, the Heat will be tough to beat. Similarly, Serge Ibaka's ability to knock down outside jump shots will be key for the Thunder's success in this series. His Game 4 performance (when he was 11 for 11) really takes some of the scoring pressure off of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. And of course, Ibaka is the best shot blocker in the league, and will have to protect the rim on the weak side against drives of James and Wade.
Edge: Even
Centers: Udonis Haslem vs. Kendrick Perkins
Haslem has been one of the role players which Miami has really depended on throughout the last half-decade, and his ability to rebound the ball, as well as hit outside shots in crunch-time can be big for the Heat. Meanwhile, Perkins true worth in this series will be setting solid screens for Durant and Westbrook, providing solid interior defense and rebounding, and finishing at the rim when he gets the ball off of dribble penetration.
Edge: Even
Bench: Shane Battier/Mike Miller/Joel Anthony vs. James Harden/Nick Collison/Derek Fisher
The Thunder is clearly the deeper team, and has more bench players that can come in and make an impact. Nick Collison brings great energy and toughness, Derek Fisher brings Finals experience and clutch shot making, while James Harden is the Sixth Man of the Year for a reason. Harden’s ability to come off the bench and act as a primary ball handler or hit big shots during crunch-time, has been the difference for the Thunder throughout their run through the West. Meanwhile, for Miami, Mike Miller has struggled with his three-point shot lately, and Joel Anthony, a good low post defender has absolutely no offensive ability. However, former Rocket Shane Battier has been absolutely huge for the Heat this postseason, whether with timely corner three pointers, or his outstanding defense in taking charges and defending the post. I think his role in this series will be to step back outside and try to make it tough on Harden. How well Harden responds to going up against a great defender (which he has yet to do this postseason) will go a long way in determining the outcome of the series.
Edge:
Thunder
My prediction:
The way OKC dispatched of the Spurs showed me they have grown up and are ready to hoist the trophy. Although Miami’s defense is physical and will make it tough on Durant, Westbrook, and Harden, I think the Thunder will be able beat the Heat if their role players (Ibaka, Perkins, Sefolosha) continue to step up and play big for them down the stretch of games. This is a luxury the Heat, who lack any consistent scorers outside of the Big 3, does not have. Give me a long, epic series, with LeBron getting one win away from his elusive ring, but the young guns with home court advantage prevailing in Game 7.
In 7.
Last round’s record: 1-1
Playoff record: 11-3
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