1. St. Louis Cardinals2009 Record: 91-71
Projected 2010 Record: 91-71 The Lineup
The addition of LF Matt Holliday at the trade deadline last year really made this offense significantly better. Other than him and MVP Albert Pujols, no other Cardinal had a slugging percentage above .450. St. Louis is young, though, as CF Colby Rasmus should continue to get better, while the left side of the infield, with 3B David Freese and SS Brendan Ryan show great promise.
The Pitching
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were arguably the best duo of starting pitchers in the National League last season (Lincecum and Cain), as they finished second and third, respectively, in the Cy Young voting. Adding Brad Penny to the rotation should only help. Ryan Franklin at closer was a pleasant surprise, as he finished with 38 saves and a 1.92 ERA.
The Key
More production out of Ryan Ludwick, Rasmus, Ryan, or Freese to alleviate some of the offensive burden off Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.
2. Chicago Cubs
2009 Record: 83-78
Projected 2010 Record: 83-79
The Lineup
Part of the reason the Cubs fell off last year was due to all the issues with their lineup. Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto both had awful seasons at the plate, while slugging 3B Aramis Ramirez missed 80 games last year due to injury. All three look to bounce back strong in 2010. Replacing the daily distraction, Milton Bradley, this year is ex-Texas Ranger Marlon Byrd, a solid professional hitter coming off a career year. The only concern for the Cubs, who are solid top to bottom, is that they are too right-handed, as Fukudome and 2B Mike Fontenot are only lefties in lineup.
The Pitching
The Cubs rotation is solid, with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly (coming off injury), and Ryan Dempster anchoring the front end of the rotation. Randy Wells, coming off a career best 12-win season, and newcomer Carlos Silva, who was disappointing in Seattle, make up the back end. In the bullpen, Carlos Marmol looks to put some his past struggles behind him to close the door on wins.
The Key
For the Cubs to contend, their veterans, mainly Ramirez and Ted Lilly, who is beginning the season on the DL, must stay on the field.
3. Cincinnati Reds
2009 Record: 78-84
Projected 2010 Record: 81-81
The Lineup
The Reds offense continues to grow with each year, anchored by 1B Joey Votto, who is coming off an outstanding 2009 (.322, 25 HR, 84 RBI) and 2B Brandon Phillips. 3B Scott Rolen, acquired at the end of the year, is a reliable hitter, even if he has lost his power. SS Orlando Cabrera is a good pickup at shortstop and will be at the top of the lineup with rookie CF Drew Stubbs. The bottom of the lineup is not as strong, as RF Jay Bruce had a very disappointing ‘09 despite hitting 22 homeruns, as he batted just .223.
The Pitching
The Reds rotation, with a good mix of veterans and young guys, is the part of the team that needs to improve on its consistency. Veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo have been up and down their whole careers, while Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are still trying to live up to their potential. The bullpen is solid at the back, with Francisco Cordero returning after a 39 save season.
The Key
The starting pitching. The lineup looks solid, but at least two or three of the starters have to have “up” years for the Reds to improve.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
2009 Record: 80-82
Projected 2010 Record: 79-83
The Lineup
The Brewers’ lineup is above average, with 1B Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun in the middle. 3B Casey McGehee also emerged last season, hitting .301 with 16 HRs, 66 RBI in his rookie year. However, after those three, there is not much other production. Leadoff man Rickie Weeks is looking to finally put together a complete good season together, while new additions Carlos Gomez and Gregg Zaun are not great hitters. RF Corey Hart must also regain his 2008 form.
The Pitching
The Brewers’ rotation, coming off a shaky 2009, should be the same in 2010. #1 Yovani Gallardo is truly an ace, and free agent additions Randy Wolf and Doug Davis should help a little bit, but the back end of a combination of Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Manny Parra is average at best. The bullpen, on the other end, should be solid, with hall of famer Trevor Hoffman and newly acquired LaTroy Hawkins.
The Key
The starting pitching must be solid, as behind Gallardo, there is just a bunch of average veterans with little upside.
5. Houston Astros
2009 Record: 74-88
Projected 2010 Record: 78-84
The Lineup
The last time the Astros had a good offense was 2004, and this year should not break that trend. While CF Michael Bourn emerged as a great leadoff hitter in 2009, RF Hunter Pence made his first all-star team, and LF Carlos Lee was solid as usual, the rest of a lineup was and will be a joke in 2010. 1B Lance Berkman is in decline, and will start the season on the DL. Meanwhile, 2B Kazuo Matsui, C J.R. Towles, and rookie SS Tommy Manzella are about the worst starters in the National League at their respective positions, while new 3B Pedro Feliz is average at best.
The Pitching
The Astros rotation will be better than it was last year. That is not saying much, though. Ace Roy Oswalt is coming off a career-worst 8 wins, and is looking to regain his dominant form in 2010. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez emerged in 2009 as a solid #2, leading the team in wins (14) and having a great ERA (3.02). Behind them is veteran Brett Myers, who is also looking to bounce back from a tough year in Philly, and youngsters Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino, both of which have major-league stuff, but have yet to master their control and adjust to the majors. The bullpen, the strength of the team in 2009, should struggle, as Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom will struggle to be as effective as Hawkins and Jose Valverde were last year.
The Key
The old/declining/average offensive players (Matsui, Berkman, Feliz) must somehow turn back the clock and manufacture some runs for the Astros to have any chance in 2010.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
2009 Record: 62-99
Projected 2010 Record: 61-101
The Lineup
The Pirates have gone young again in 2010, which means another year of growing pains. CF Andrew McCutchen emerged as a great top of the lineup contributor at the end of last season, and he along with RF Garrett Jones form a good middle of the lineup. However, the fact that catcher Ryan Doumit (.250, 10 HR, 38 RBI) will bat cleanup for the Bucs is frightening. Behind Doumit, are LF Lastings Milledge, a bust in New York and Washington, 1B Jeff Clement, who has yet to adjust to major league pitching, and soft hitting 3B Andy LaRoche and SS Ronny Cedeno.
The Pitching
The Pirates rotation consists of a bunch of average pitchers who either do not have potential or have yet to reach it. Lefty Zach Duke put up solid numbers and along with Ross Ohlendorf, is good 1-2 punch for Bucs. Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton, and Daniel McCutchen round out the rotation, and are young but not very promising. In the bullpen, veteran Octavio Dotel will look to regain his status as a major league closer.
The Key
For the Pirates to avoid their 18th straight losing season, the young guys in lineup must produce timely hits.
