1. Chicago Cubs 2008 Record: 97-64
Projected 2009 Record: 89-73 The Lineup
The top lineup in the division from a season ago returns, along with the addition of RF Milton Bradley who will add some more pop in the middle of the lineup. LF Alfonso Soriano (.280, 29 HR, 75 RBI in 2008) will stay as an explosive leadoff hitter, the corner infield spots of Derrek Lee (.291, 20 HR, 90 RBI) and Aramis Ramirez (.289 HR, 27 HR, 111 RBI) are one of the best in baseball, and behind the plate, C Geovany Soto is the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. The one weakness is probably center field, as Kosuke Fukudome may have to split time with Reed Johnson.
The PitchingCarlos Zambrano will start Opening Day and behind, there has probably never been so much depth. Ryan Dempster made a nice transition from the bullpen last year, and along with Ted Lilly, were 17-game winners last season. Rich Harden, picked up from the A’s last season, and Sean Marshall should be fine at the back of the rotation.
With Kerry Wood going to the Indians, the Cubs added closer Kevin Gregg (29 SV in 2008). If he should struggle, All-Star Carlos Marmol can close as well.
The KeyThe retooled bullpen needs to hold up and not blow late-game leads. The health of Bradley and Harden is also a key.
2. Milwaukee Brewers2008 Record: 90-72
Projected 2009 Record: 86-76The LineupThe lineup from last year returns intact, but that may not be a great thing. 2B Rickie Weeks (234 in 2008) and 3B Bill Hall (.225) are both coming off terrible seasons, and CF Mike Cameron and C Jason Kendall are not exactly silver sluggers. However, the middle of the lineup should be fine with the continued emergence of LF Ryan Braun, 1B Prince Fielder, and RF Corey Hart.
The Pitching:No team has lost as much in the rotation as the Brewers. With CC Sabathia leaving for the Yankees and Ben Sheets an injured free agent, Milwaukee will start veteran Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA in 2008) on opening day. Behind him, Yovani Gallardo is coming off an injury shortened ’08, while Manny Parra and Dave Bush are average pitchers at best. The addition of Braden Looper helps a little, but he too is coming off an injury. In the bullpen, the Brewers dumped Eric Gagne and now look to veteran Trevor Hoffman (who will actually start the season on the DL) and Carlos Villanueva.
The KeyThe entire pitching staff. With Sabathia and Sheets gone, Gallardo, Suppan, and Parra have to post great seasons for the Brewers to return to the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Cardinals2008 Record: 86-76
Projected 2009 Record: 79-83The LineupWith uncommon names such as Skip Schumaker (.302 in 2008), Ryan Ludwick (.299), and Rick Ankiel (.264, 25 HR, 71 RBI), the Cardinals have a nice lineup and actually posted a league-high .281 average as a team last year. While having NL MVP 1B Albert Pujols (.357, 37 HR, 116) helps a lot, Schumaker, Ludwick, Ankiel, along with C Yadier Molina and 3B Troy Glaus all exceeded expectations last year and should be solid again this year. The addition of SS Khalil Green (.213, 10 HR, 35 RBI) does not seem like much, but he has had a great spring.
The PitchingChris Carpenter is back after missing pretty much the entire 2008, while the rest of the rotation has also returned. Adam Wainwright (11-3, 3.20 ERA), Kyle Lohse (15-6, 3.78), and Todd Wellemeyer (13-9, 3.71) all had good seasons, but to battle for the division, the Cards need more. The bullpen is also a big question mark. Jason Motte will start the year closing, with Chris Perez also getting chances throughout the year. If you are wondering who these guys are, I rest my case.
The KeyThe pitching is ultimately what cost the Redbirds a playoff birth last year and it is key on any postseason aspirations for this year as well.
4. Houston Astros2008 Record: 86-75
Projected 2009 Record: 76-86The LineupComing off an overall disappointing offensive year for Houston, it may not be much better this year. OF Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence had their best years in 2008 and need to anchor the middle of the lineup, while free agent Ivan Rodriguez should fill a hole at catcher. And while 1B Lance Berkman (.312, 29 HR, 106 RBI) and Miguel Tejada (.283, 13 HR, 66 RBI) were all-stars in New York last year, both broke down in the second half of the season. The loss of Ty Wigginton at 3B is huge as a Geoff Blum/Jeff Keppinger platoon at third just frightens me.
The PitchingIf you think the lineup has question marks, just look at this rotation. Ace Roy Oswalt will start on Opening Day for the sixth straight season, but behind him are four question marks. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off an injury riddled 2008, while Brian Moehler (11-8, 4.56 ERA) has to prove that last year’s numbers weren’t a flop at age 37. Free agent veterans Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz need to show that they aren’t washed up and can still pitch in the majors. Jose Valverde is a great closer, and the rest of the bullpen should not be a problem.
The Key
There are question marks in the lineup, but not like the four in the rotation. Hampton and Ortiz must turn back the clock 10 years or something to regain their former skills for this team to go anywhere this season.
5. Cincinnati Reds2008 Record: 74-88
Projected 2009 Record: 72-90
The LineupOne of the youngest lineups in the division, the Reds are growing up together. 1B Joey Votto (.297, 24 HR, 84 RBI), 2B Brandon Phillips, and RF Jay Bruce should be solid in the middle, but the rest of the lineup needs more production. Free agent CF Willy Taveras and a healthy Alex Gonzales help the speed and defense of the team, but have average on-base percentages. And the bottom of the lineup with 3B Edwin Encarnacion and free agent C Ramon Hernandez won’t help much.
The Pitching:This rotation has the looks of a solid one, with all-star Edinson Volquez (17-6, 3.21 ERA), Aaron Harang, aand Bronson Arroyo. The back of the rotation looks promising also with young Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and maybe Homer Bailey.
In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero (34 SV) is a good closer and there is depth with David Weathers and Arthur Rhodes behind him.
The KeyThe pitching might actually be decent this year, but too many questions in the lineup will be Cincy’s downfall.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 Record: 67-95
Projected 2009 Record: 68-94The LineupThe lineup is the same from last year, with core of stars being all-star CF Nate McLouth (.276, 26 HR, 94 RBI), C Ryan Doumit, and 1b Adam LaRoche. After that, it drops off a bunch. SS Jack Wilson, LF Nyjer Morgan and 2B Freddy Sanchez are nothing special, and youngsters RF Brandon Moss and 3B Andy LaRoche are unproven major league hitters.
The PitchingThe same group of young, improving pitchers is back, and slowly and steadily, they continue to improve (kind of). Paul Maholm has had a great spring and is their #1. Behind him are Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf, who all have shown some glimpses of success, but nothing consistently positive. Matt Capps is a pretty good closer, but behind him and John Grabow, there isn’t much.
The KeyThe consistency of the starting rotation is what will determine whether Pittsburgh has its 17th straight losing season.
