1. Indianapolis Colts
2009 Record: 14-2
Projected 2010 Record: 11-5
The Offense
The Super Bowl runner-up’s offense should be dominant as usual this season, with QB Peyton Manning coming off his fourth MVP season. Already a great receiving core should get stronger this year, as WR Anthony Gonzalez, who was hurt for almost all of 2009, should bolster a group that already includes All-Pro Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, as well as TE Dallas Clark. The offensive line returns intact and should be solid. The only weakness on Indy’s offense is their running game, which ranked last in the league in 2009.
The Defense
The 18th ranked defense from last year returns intact. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are the best combo in the league and adding first-round pick Jerry Hughes from TCU should only help. The linebacking core of MLB Gary Brackett, and OLBs Clint Session and Philip Wheeler returns whole. The strong secondary hopes to get a full healthy season from SS Bob Sanders, while FS Antoine Bethea, and CB Jerraud Powers and Kelvin Hayden should be solid.
The Key
The running game. The Colts won 14 games despite being 32nd in rushing last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown must give the offense some balance for the Colts to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. Houston Texans
2009 Record: 9-7
Projected 2010 Record: 9-7
The Offense
The Texans’ offense emerged last season as one of the best in the league, despite having virtually no running game. QB Matt Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year, and should direct a high-octane attack again this year, with All-Pro WR Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and potential sleeper Jacoby Jones. TE Owen Daniels was on his way to All-Pro status too last year before he tore his ACL. His health could be key in adding another downfield threat for Schaub. Arian Foster will start the season as the #1 RB, as Steve Slaton still has not solved his fumbling problem from last season. The o-line, led by RT Eric Winston, is solid, not great, and need to improve in short-yardage situation.
The Defense
Houston’s defense finally took the step from being mediocre to at least competent last year, finishing ranked 13th overall. LB Brian Cushing and SS Bernard Pollard added much needed toughness for the unit last year, helping LB DeMeco Ryans and DE Mario Williams be more effective. The loss of Cushing for the first four games due to suspension will hurt, as LB Xavier Adibi must step up in his absence. The weakness of this defense will be the secondary. Franchise corner Dunta Robinson is gone, and in his place, rookie first round-pick Kareem Jackson will have to learn on the fly and be effective to prevent big plays.
The Key
The play of the secondary. While the safeties are solid veterans, the cornerbacks on this team are very young, and for the Texans to make the playoffs for the first time ever, Jackson, Glover Quin, and Brice McCain will have to play very well. In addition, the Texans need to improve their record against divisional opponents, as they were just 1-5 within the AFC South last year.
3. Tennessee Titans
2009 Record: 8-8
Projected 2010 Record: 8-8
The Offense
What a year it was for RB Chris Johnson, who gained over 2000 yards on the ground, last year. He was the one constant on an offense that went through a quarterback change in the middle of the season again. Out is Kerry Collins, and in is Vince Young, who played fairly well down the stretch for Tennessee last year, as they finished 8-2 after a 0-6 start. The passing game is still suspect at times, but WR Kenny Britt is on the rise after a good rookie season, and veterans Nate Washington and Justin Gage are professionals.
The Defense
A big reason this team won five less games last year was the play of the defense. The Titans never seemed to overcome the losses of DT Albert Haynesworth and coordinator Jim Schwartz, and did not start the season well. It will be interesting to see how they overcome losing veterans Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch this year. In the secondary, Tennessee is solid, although they gave up way too many big plays in the passing game early in the season
The Key
The passing game. The Titans have a tough schedule and to improve on last year’s results, Vince Young needs to be more consistent in getting the ball to the WR core.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2009 Record: 7-9
Projected 2010 Record: 5-11
The Offense
The Jaguars offense, much like the Titans, depends on the running game. Maurice Jones-Drew was fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards last year, and carried a unit that was mediocre at best last year. A lot of that has to deal with QB David Garrard, who has not matched his career-best year of 2008, in the two seasons since. A lot of that has to deal with his lack of play making receivers down the field, but with WR Mike Sims-Walker emerging as the #1 last year, Garrard must be more efficient in 2010.
The Defense
This rebuilt defense will try to improve on the 23rd ranked status they earned last year. The turnover for this unit has been extensive since their playoff team in 2008, and its new leaders are linebackers Daryl Smith and Justin Durant. Jacksonville’s pass-rush was dreadful last year, so the team added veteran DE Aaron Kampman and rookie Tyson Alualu. How they come together as a unit will determine how much success they will have on pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Finally, starting cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox are good, but the Jags must get improved safety play from Reggie Nelson and company to shore up the back, which ranked 27th against the pass last year.
The Key
The improvement of the defense. Whether or not the Jaguars can stay in the playoff hunt will depend on their ability to rush the passer and be solid in the secondary.
