Super Bowl LI Preview: Patriots vs. Falcons

The big game in my hometown is tonight. Let's break it down.

QB: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan 

Brady is trying to win his record fifth Super Bowl and cement his status as the greatest of all-time. He came back from a 4 game suspension due to the Deflategate scandal and had an awesome regular season, throwing 28 TD, with just 2 INT, while leading the Patriots to the top seed in the AFC. In the playoffs, he bounced back from a rough performance against the top-ranked Texans defense, by carving up the Steelers in the AFC Championship game to the tune of 384 passing yards and 3 TD. The blueprint for the Falcons defense is to confuse Brady with coverages long enough for their pass rush to get to him. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan was named the NFL MVP last night, and for good reason. He led the Falcons to the top ranked scoring offense, throwing for 4944 passing yards and 38 TD, in a career rejuvenation under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's tutelage. He has been lights out in the playoffs in shredding both the Seahawks and Packers defenses.

Edge: Even

RB: LeGarrett Blount/Dion Lewis vs. Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman

Blount was 8^th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season but has struggled to find room to run in the playoffs, as he's averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. New England's running game opens up their playbook and allows play action down the field. A key in this game will be whether Blount and Dion Lewis, who scored three touchdowns against the Texans in the divisional round, can have an impact against an Atlanta defense which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this postseason, but has given up 100 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Falcons have one of the most dynamic running duos in the NFL, with Devonta Freeman, who finished 9th and Tevin Coleman, who finished 33rd in rushing in the regular season. Both are skilled enough to run in between the tackles and outside, while also being able to catch the ball out of the backfield. They will need to have an impact on this game for the Falcons to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Edge: Falcons 

WR/TE: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett vs. Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel

The Patriots lost their biggest receiving threat in Rob Gronkowski for the season with a back injury, but the Patriots have had no-names step up and fill the void, as has been the case for the past decade. Julian Edelman is the team's leading receiver (4th in the league with 98 receptions) and is a matchup nightmare in the slot position, because is so shifty and good at running routes. Chris Hogan has emerged in the playoffs as a downfield threat, with 275 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Martellus Bennett has filled in aptly for Gronkowski, although he is battling a nagging knee injury going into this game. 

Julio Jones showed the world how good he was in the NFC Championship Game as he had 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns in decimating the Packers' secondary. His combination of size, speed, and leaping ability is why the Falcons gave all those draft picks to get him, and he has stayed healthy this year to be Ryan's #1 downfield threat. Sanu and Gabriel are solid route runners who are sure-handed second and third options, respectively.
Edge: Falcons 

Offensive Line:

The Patriots ranked 9^th in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com. Meanwhile, the Falcons ranked 10^th in run blocking and 23^rd in pass blocking. I think the New England o-line against the Atlanta pass rush is the matchup that will decide this game. The Falcons have to get pressure on Brady to make up for a secondary susceptible to big plays. 
Edge: Patriots

Defensive Line:

The Patriots d-line excels against the run but has struggled to pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Trey Flowers (who led the team with 7 sacks) is the best pass rusher and DT Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown are disruptive as well against the run. They will have to slow down Freeman and Coleman tonight to make Atlanta's offense one-dimensional. The Falcons defensive line has struggled against both the run and the pass at times this year. DT Grady Jarrett had 3 sacks in the regular season and Jordan Babineaux can makes plays as well, but that unit will have their hands full trying to make plays against a good Patriots offensive line.

Edge: Patriots

Linebackers:

The Patriots linebacking core is led by Dont'a Hightower, who had 65 combined tackles from his inside linebacker position, along with 2.5 sacks. Rob Ninkovich is a good edge rusher as well who had 4 sacks in the regular season. For Atlanta, OLB Vic Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks and will need to be contained by the Patriots' offensive line to keep Brady on his feet. MLB Deion Jones was a contender for defensive rookie of the year, and for good reason, as he had 75 tackles in the regular season and has 11 in their two playoff wins.

Edge: Falcons

Secondary:

The Patriots have one of the best secondaries in football, with safety Devin McCourty, and two great corners in Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. They'll face a stiff test against the speed and precise route running of the Atlanta receivers. Atlanta's strength in the secondary are the two safeties, Keanu Neal (72 tackles in regular season) and Ricardo Allen (61 tackles), who are playmakers that make a lot of tackles in the running game. How CB Robert Alford and Jalen Collins play against Patriots' shifty receivers will be key in this game. I think not having top corner Desmond Trufant will hurt a lot.

Edge: Patriots

Special Teams:

The Patriots always have a good special teams, even with kicker Stephen Gostkowski having an up and down season kicking field goals.  They have excellent kick and punt coverage teams and a good return game with Dion Lewis or Danny Amendola. The Falcons' kicker, Matt Bryant, is virtually automatic, especially indoors. Their kick and punt coverage teams are OK, as well as their return game with Eric Weems.

Slight Edge: Patriots

Bottom Line:

For Atlanta to win, their defense has to confuse Tom Brady with their coverages, which will force him to hold the ball and potentially make mistakes when under pressure. They have to be able to get the ball down the field to secondary receivers like Sanu, Gabriel, as well as their running backs, especially if Butler locks down Julio Jones.

For New England to win, their offensive line has to win against the Atlanta defensive line and protect Tom Brady. Their receivers need to take advantage on the outside against the inexperienced Atlanta corners. Defensively, they need to stop Atlanta's ground game first and prevent the big passing plays down the field from Matt Ryan.

In the end, it's going to be a shootout, which will be welcome, after last year's defensive struggle. I think New England is able to contain the Falcons on the ground, and their secondary is able to make enough plays against the Atlanta playmakers. As he did the last time the Super Bowl was in Houston, Tom Brady marches his team down the field and cements his status (not without controversy) as the greatest QB of all-time, with his fifth ring. And an awkward moment with commissioner Roger Goddell.

 30, 27

Playoff record: 10-0

All-time Super Bowl record: 3-4

Los Angeles Chargers: Pure Greed and Stupidity

The San Diego Chargers are no more. 55 years of history flushed down the toilet in the latest episode of the "NFL Greed Chronicles".

I'm sure you've heard the story by now: Chargers owner Dean Spanos and the city of San Diego were unable to come into an agreement on a deal to construct a new stadium to replace the ancient Qualcomm, all because Spanos wanted public money that the city simply didn't have to fund his new stadium. When the other NFL owners were unwilling to give Spanos more free money than the $300 million the NFL already offered, he felt like he had no choice but to move to LA.

But why? Economically, Spanos could have easily ponied up the money for the stadium - the team has to pay $650 million in relocation fees - that money could have easily been used to build that stadium in San Diego. Instead, they will be second-class tenants in a stadium shared with the slimy Stan Kroenke and the Rams.

In addition to ripping out the hearts of loyal fans who have stuck with a mediocre franchise through 5 decades, there simply is no fan base in LA for the Chargers. They have no history there except one season in 1960.  They will have to fight an uphill battle trying to win over fans who either
1) Aren't NFL fans (along with all the entertainment options in L.A., there's also 2 baseball teams, 2 basketball teams, a hockey team, a soccer team, and two marquee college football universities) OR
2) Are fans of other teams (namely, the Rams and Raiders, who had longer histories in the city).

Spanos is going to have to hope its the latter, as it looked bad this year even for the Rams, who had horrific attendance at the Coliseum after fans got over the initial spectacle and realized how bad that team was. The Chargers have had a better record over the past 10 years, with a couple playoff appearances, but not by much. In order to capture fans immediately, they need to start winning before the Rams can recover.

The NFL is a business run by lawyers and billionaire owners who want to make money, I understand that. But the depth to the lack of awareness about what fans will be able to take is astounding.No, Robert Kraft, there will be ZERO fans making the two hour drive to continue to root for a team that left their city to a join a rival city.

At some point, enough is enough. Yes, the NFL has the most popular sport, by far, in the country, It will remain that way for a while. But keep going down this road of pure greed - whether it be London games, Thursday Night Football, alleged expanded season/playoffs, continually plucking franchises out of cities chasing the money - and fans are going to turn off eventually.

By the way, that logo is hideous and a straight rip-off of the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Lightning.

NFL Picks: Week 15

NFL Picks: Week 13

NFL Picks: Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving 2016!

Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers and hope you guys enjoy a great day filled with food, family, and football.

There are three sensational games today, and here are my Thanksgiving football picks:

Vikings @ Lions 12:30 PM ET on CBS
High chance this game determines the NFC North, with the winner claiming sole possession of the division lead. They met two weeks ago in Minneapolis and the Lions escaped with an overtime win. These are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, so I'd skip this game if you can't stand defensive struggles. I think Detroit pulls out a nip-and-tuck game, behind solid running of Theo Riddick and Matthew Stafford solving Minnesota's great defense.

Redskins @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET on FOX
The Cowboys are the darlings of the NFL this year, being led by the rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and have won their last 9 games. With Dez Bryant slowly rounding back into form, and a red hot Kirk Cousins, this could be an entertaining shootout. In the end, there's no way Washington's 29th ranked rush defense can stop Elliott. Give me the 'Boys at home.

Steelers @ Colts 8:30 PM ET on NBC
A pivotal matchup between two 5-5 teams desperate for a win to improve their playoff positioning. Big Ben and the Steelers are technically tied for first in the shockingly anemic AFC North, and this a game they have to have against a horrible defense in Indy, who will also be without star QB Andrew Luck, who will be out with a concussion. I'll take the Steelers. 

My Thanksgiving Picks: 

NFL Picks: Week 11

NFL Picks: Week 6

Last week: 7-7
Season record: 40-37

NFL Picks: Week 5

NFL Picks: Week 4

Season record: 26-22

Super Bowl 50 Preview: Panthers vs. Broncos

The NFL’s golden game is here, with Super Bowl 50 tonight in San Francisco. Let’s break down the game here.

QB: Cam Newton vs. Peyton Manning
Newton won the NFL MVP last night, as he led the Panthers to an NFL best 15-1 record with 35 TD and 10 INT. In his fourth year in the league, he has elevated to superstar level with his combination of running and throwing, all while dancing and giving away footballs to little kids after every touchdown. He will face his toughest test of the season tonight against the league’s top defense in Denver. Meanwhile, this should be 39-year old Peyton Manning’s last game in the NFL, after 18 years in the league. He had a rough statistical year, missing 6 games due to a foot injury and throwing 17 INT, to just 9 TD. His arm strength is gone at this point, and needs to outsmart Carolina’s defense by making smart audibles and not turning the ball over tonight against the Panthers’ ball-hawking defense.
Edge: Panthers

RB: Jonathan Stewart/Mike Tolbert vs. CJ Anderson/Ronnie Hillman

Stewart was 8^th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season and has averaged 5 yards per carry in the playoffs against two great defenses in Seattle and Arizona. Not a speed demon, his rushing between the tackles between the tackles sets up Newton and the passing game. Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert is a Pro Bowl fullback/H-back who can also pound it in on short yardage, as well as catch balls out of the back field. Against the Broncos’ #1 overall defense, Stewart and Tolbert will need to get some yards in early downs to limit the pass rushing ability of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and co. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a two-headed rushing attack, with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Anderson began the season as the #1 back but struggled at times during the season, allowing the speedier Hillman to gain more work. In their two postseason wins, however, Anderson has been much more effective, averaging 4.6 yards per carry to Hillman’s 2.0. To keep Peyton Manning in manageable down and distance, both have to have a good game for the Broncos to win.
Edge: Panthers

WR/TE: Ted Ginn Jr./Jerricho Cotchery/Greg Olsen vs. Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas/Owen Daniels
The Panthers receiving core was supposed to be a weakness of the team, with WR Kelvin Benjamin going down with a torn ACL in preseason and a collection of unproven and no-name receivers. Given the circumstances, it turned out decent in 2016. TE Greg Olsen was the team’s leading receiver and is a matchup nightmare in the secondary, with his size and route-running ability. WR Ted Ginn battled drops throughout the year but has world-class speed to get behind defenses, scoring a team-high 10 receiving TD. Meanwhile, the 33-year old Cotchery has had a solid season as the team’s third option running underneath routes as a possession receiver. The Broncos, despite all their issues in the passing game, had their top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, surpass 1000 yards. Thomas against Panthers shutdown corner Josh Norman will be one to watch tonight. In Gary Kubiak’s offense, TE Owen Daniels is also very important, as he scored 2 TD last weekend. He could be matched up against Luke Kuechly and has to win some one-on-one battles for Manning.
Edge: Broncos

Offensive Line:
The Panthers ranked 12^th in run blocking and 21^st in pass blocking, according to Footballoutsiders.com. Meanwhile, the Broncos ranked 17^th in run blocking and 13^th in pass blocking. Big games on won in the trenches, so whichever line is more successful in opening up gaps and protecting may determine the outcome.
Edge: Even

Defensive Line:
The Panthers will get veteran DE Jared Allen back after he missed the NFC Championship, and that should help a Carolina pass rush which has generated 8 sacks in their two wins. DT Kawaan Short had a team-high 11 sacks in the regular season, while Charles Johnson has added 2 in the postseason. They will try to control the line of scrimmage, an integral part to stopping Kubiak and the Broncos’ West coast offense. The Broncos generated the best pass rush in football in large part due to Von Miller (11 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (7.5 sacks), which just wrecked the Patriots’ offensive line in the AFC Championship game. They will need to contain Cam Newton in the pocket while pursuing him, as well as stop the Panthers’ lethal running game.
Edge: Broncos

Linebackers:
Luke Kuechly (118 tackles) and Thomas Davis (105 tackles, 5 ½ sacks) are the best linebacking duo in the game, as they are playmakers from sideline to sideline. Denver's offense is very dependent on throwing to the tight ends so their coverage on Daniels and Vernon Davis will be key in this game. On the other side, Danny Trevathan (109 tackles) and Brandon Marshall (102 tackles) will have their hands full trying to contain Greg Olsen and the Panthers' ground game.

Edge: Panthers

Secondary:

The Panthers have one of the top corners in the league in Josh Norman, who will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas, as well as hard hitting safeties in Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper. But after that, the Panthers' secondary has been depleted by injuries, so watch for Emmanuel Sanders to try to take advantage of a matchup with Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan. On the other side, Denver had the #1 passing defense due to great play from Aqib Talib (16 passes defensed). He, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby will try to slow down the Panthers' speedy wide receivers.

Edge: Broncos

Special Teams:

The Panthers' kicking game is middle of the pack, with Graham Gano and Brad Nortman, but above average in the return with the electric Ted Ginn, Jr. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a good kicking combo with Brandon McManus (who benefits from mile-high altitude) and punter Britton Colquitt, but a below average return teams with the combo of Omar Boldin and Sanders.
Slight Edge: Broncos

Coaching:

Ron Rivera was on the hot seat last year when the Panthers started 3-8-1, but since then, the Panthers have lost only twice, as they had team the best record in the NFL by letting his players embrace and follow his star player, Cam Newton's lead. Meanwhile, Gary Kubiak, two years removed from being fired by the Texans, has successfully elevated the Broncos back to the Super Bowl, on the strength of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' #1 defense.

Edge: Even

Bottom Line:

For Denver to win, their defense has to contain Cam Newton in the pocket and stop the run on early downs, to force Cam Newton into third and long, which the Broncos' pass rush thrives. Offensively, they have to play turnover free against the playmakers on Carolina's D and establish the run early and often to keep Manning from having to force throws he isn't capable of making anymore. Running the ball effectively will also control the clock and keep Newton and the quick-strike Panthers off the field.

For Carolina to win, their offensive line has to hold up against Denver's four man pass rush and open up gaps for Stewart and the running game. That will allow Cam Newton to ease into the game and be a dynamic playmaker, something Denver's defense hasn't faced yet this year. Defensively, Carolina needs to take advantage of any takeaway opportunities and stop Denver's rushing attack.

In the end, because both defenses are so good, I expect it to be a low-scoring, drag-it-out close affair. Denver has been so good in close games this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see Peyton Manning ride off into retirement with his second Super Bowl victory. But I think Cam Newton and the Panthers are the more talented team and raise the Lombardi tonight.

My prediction: 

2017

Last round's record: 1-1
Playoff record: 8-2

All-time Super Bowl record: 3-3

NFL Picks: Conference Championships

#2 Patriots @ #1 Broncos 2:05 PM CT CBS
It's the Brady-Manning Bowl for the 17th and likely final time, with the AFC Championship in Denver. Except this time, it's Denver's #1 outstanding defense trying to slowdown a Patriot attack which overmatched the Chiefs last weekend. I think Gronk is an ex-factor and New England's underrated defense shuts down the Broncos' running game, forcing Manning to try to beat them. I don't think that will happen, as Peyton rides off into the sunset two wins shy of a second ring.

#2 Cardinals @ #1 Panthers 5:40 PM CT FOX
In the NFC Championship, two great defenses clash with Arizona and Carolina. In the end, I think it comes down to QB play. Carson Palmer looked like a mess last weekend, while Cam Newton is still playing on an MVP-level. Give me the Panthers in a nailbiter.

Last week: 3-1
Playoffs record: 7-1

NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

#5 Chiefs @ #2 Patriots 3:30 PM CT CBS
KC took out my Texans easily last week and continue to be the hottest team in the NFL, riding a stifling defense. They'll have their hands full with a rested Tom Brady, who will also get his top wide receiver back in Julian Edelman. I expect a low scoring game (as New England's defense will shut down the banged up Chiefs' offense), with the Pats advancing to another AFC Championship.

#5 Packers @ #2 Cardinals 7 PM CT NBC
Green Bay's offense returned from its long slumber in throttling the Redskins last weekend to set up this rematch of a Week 16 encounter, which Arizona won 38-8. The Cardinals' D dominated the Green Bay offense that day by forcing turnovers, stifling the running game, and harassing Aaron Rodgers in the pocket all game long. I think this game is a lot closer, but Arizona uses the same formula for success as last time to get the W.

#6 Seahawks @ #1 Panthers 12 PM FOX
The Super Bowl champs survived the bittercold of Minneapolis thanks to the Blair Walsh choke, to set up this awesome matchup with the 15-1 Panthers. Both teams have great defenses, which should limit the running games. So it'll come down to Cam Newton vs. Russell Wilson, two dual threat quarterbacks who are the faces of their teams. Although Greg Olsen may exploit holes in the Seattle secondary, give me the playoff pedigree of the Seahawks in a nail-biter.

#6 Steelers @ #2 Broncos 3:30 PM CBS
Pittsburgh survived the backyard brawl with Cincy last week, but paid the price it lost star WR Antonio Brown to a concussion, as well as banging up QB Ben Roethlisberger. That, coupled with RB DeAngelo Williams still being out does not project well against the NFL's top defense in Denver. I think the Broncos' defense stifles the Steelers, allowing Peyton Manning to knock the rust off and get into another AFC title game.

Last week: 4-0

NFL Picks: Wildcard Weekend

Saturday, January 9 Chiefs 3:35 PM Texans ESPN/ABC

My hometown Texans won an especially lousy AFC South this year to sneak into the playoffs, despite starting 2-5 and losing starting running back Arian Foster early on, behind smashmouth defense led by likely defensive POY JJ Watt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, who also started out horribly at 1-5, are the hottest team in the NFL with 10 straight wins, behind a dominant defense and mistake-free football from QB Alex Smith. I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, with KC prevailing. I think the Texans missing LT Duane Brown on the offensive line will be their undoing, as they won't be able to protect QB Brian Hoyer.

Steelers 7:15 PM Bengals

CBS

An AFC North showdown between these two rivals, who split the season series and have had some feisty encounters over the last couple of years. Pittsburgh's offense is scary good, even though they lost RB DeAngelo Williams last week, and the Cincy D will have its hands full trying to cover Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and co. Meanwhile, the Bengals will try to snap their long playoff win drought without starting QB Andy Dalton, who is still out with the broken thumb. Sorry, Cincy, just don't see AJ McCarron ending the streak for y'all.

Sunday, January 10

Seahawks 12:05 PM Vikings NBC This game is a rematch of an earlier season encounter between the two teams, in which the Seahawks won big. Although the gametime temperature will be about 3 degrees, I like the same outcome, with the veteran Seahawks taking out the upstart Vikings. I just don't see Teddy Bridgewater making enough plays against Seattle's secondary to pull off the upset. Packers 3:40 PM on FOX Redskins Green Bay limped down the stretch, as their offense has squidded to an awful end of the season. It starts up front as the Pack have no running game and have had trouble protecting Aaron Rodgers. Redskins won a weak NFC East and probably have more momentum going into this game, but I'll go with Rodgers over Kirk Cousins in a squeaker.

NFL Picks: Week 17

Sunday, January 3
NY Jets at Buffalo – 1:00pm ET, CBS
New England at Miami – 1:00pm ET, CBS
New Orleans at Atlanta – 1:00pm ET, FOX
Baltimore at Cincinnati – 1:00pm ET, FOX
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – 1:00pm ET, CBS
Jacksonville at Houston – 1:00pm ET, CBS
Tennessee at Indianapolis – 1:00pm ET, CBS
Washington at Dallas – 1:00pm ET, FOX
Philadelphia at NY Giants – 1:00pm ET, FOX
Detroit at Chicago – 1:00pm ET, FOX
Oakland at Kansas City – 4:25pm ET, FOX
San Diego at Denver – 4:25pm ET, CBS
Seattle at Arizona – 4:25pm ET, FOX
St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:25pm ET, CBS
Tampa Bay at Carolina – 4:25pm ET, FOX
Minnesota at Green Bay – 8:30pm ET, NBC